Euro Under Mild Pressure Amid Policy Uncertainty and Weaker USD

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๐Ÿ“Œ EUR/USD Outlook: Euro Under Mild Pressure Amid Policy Uncertainty and Weaker US Dollar ๐Ÿ“‰
๐ŸŒ Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD is trading cautiously around 1.1400, as market sentiment remains sensitive to developments in the US-China trade situation and broader monetary policy expectations.

Despite recent USD weakness โ€” where the greenback lost ground against all G10 currencies this April โ€” the Euro is facing renewed selling pressure amid rising speculation about further ECB rate cuts.

ECB policymakers, including Olli Rehn and Franรงois Villeroy de Galhau, highlighted the increasing risks of missing the 2% inflation target, reinforcing the need for more monetary easing if necessary.

Meanwhile, mixed signals between Trump and Beijing over trade negotiations have kept uncertainty high, putting both USD and risk sentiment in flux.

๐Ÿ“ˆ Key Economic Events to Watch
US Data:

JOLTS Job Openings

Q1 GDP Preliminary

ISM Manufacturing PMI

ADP Employment Change

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

Core PCE Price Index (March)

Eurozone Data:

Q1 GDP Preliminary

April HICP Inflation

Recent weaker-than-expected Spanish GDP (0.6% vs. forecast 0.7%) also adds pressure on the broader Eurozone outlook.

๐Ÿ“Š Technical Outlook โ€“ EUR/USD
Immediate Resistance: 1.1450 โ€“ 1.1475

Immediate Support: 1.1375 โ€“ 1.1340

The pair is now hovering near the 1.1400 psychological level, with slight bearish momentum:

A break below 1.1375 could open the path towards 1.1340.

On the upside, holding above 1.1400 and reclaiming 1.1450 would be needed to revive bullish momentum.

The Dollar Index (DXY) remains trapped around 99.20, hinting at limited immediate USD strength but vulnerable to macro catalysts.

๐Ÿง  Trading Strategy
Prefer short-term sell setups if EUR/USD fails to hold 1.1400 and breaks below 1.1375.

Bullish setups are only valid if Price closes firmly above 1.1450, aiming towards 1.1475 resistance.

โšก Traders should stay cautious ahead of major data this week, especially US NFP and Core PCE, which could redefine short-term Dollar strength.

๐Ÿ’ฌ Are you watching for a deeper pullback or waiting for a bounce above 1.1450? Letโ€™s discuss! ๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡

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