EUR/USD (1H) – Triple Bottom Breakout Setup | Bullish Reversal in Progress
Market Context & Background
After an extended downtrend, EUR/USD began consolidating in a horizontal range, indicating market indecision and possible accumulation. Over the past several sessions, price action has shown multiple failed attempts to break lower, forming a Triple Bottom pattern—a powerful bullish reversal signal when confirmed with a neckline breakout.
This analysis explores the full structure of the pattern, trade entry strategy, price targets, and risk management zones for both swing and intraday traders.
🔍 Pattern Structure Breakdown
1. Triple Bottom Formation
The pattern began forming after a sharp downtrend, where the market found consistent support at ~1.1317.
Price tested this level three distinct times—each time rejecting strongly—marking Bottom 1, Bottom 2, and Bottom 3 on the chart.
This signifies strong buyer interest and a likely exhaustion of selling pressure.
Between each bottom, price made moderate rallies, indicating buyers are gradually stepping in and absorbing the downward momentum.
2. Neckline (Resistance Area)
The horizontal resistance zone around 1.1450–1.1460 represents the neckline of the pattern.
This area acted as a supply zone earlier in the downtrend (see April 22 high), where price faced heavy rejection.
A breakout and successful retest of this zone will confirm the Triple Bottom pattern and likely attract further bullish interest.
📊 Trade Setup & Strategy
Entry Strategy
Entry is suggested on the pullback after the neckline breakout, near the 1.1380–1.1400 zone.
This offers a low-risk, high-reward setup by entering on a retest of previous resistance turned support.
The ideal entry candle would be a bullish engulfing, pin bar, or breakout-retest confirmation on the lower timeframes (15M/30M).
Targets
TP1 (Take Profit 1): 1.1454 – Key neckline level, offering a clean and conservative exit for partial profits.
TP2 (Final Target): 1.1484 – This level is derived by projecting the height of the Triple Bottom pattern above the neckline, aligning with a historical resistance level.
Stop Loss (SL)
Placed just below the lowest bottom (1.1317), protecting the trade against a false breakout or pattern invalidation.
Traders may tighten this to 1.1340–1.1350 based on their risk tolerance and time horizon.
🧠 Technical Insights & Trader Psychology
Volume Analysis: Increasing volume on the upward legs from each bottom suggests accumulation by institutional buyers.
Market Sentiment: With USD under potential pressure from upcoming macro data, the pair is primed for bullish momentum.
Breakout Psychology: Once the neckline is breached, traders who missed the entry or were previously short may fuel the breakout by either buying or exiting shorts—this could lead to explosive price action.
Trap Avoidance: The pullback strategy avoids FOMO buying and provides a safe entry zone supported by structure.
📉 Risk/Reward Profile
Entry Zone 1.1380–1.1400
Stop Loss 1.1317
Take Profit 1 1.1454
Take Profit 2 1.1484
R:R Ratio Approx. 1:2.5 to 1:3
This setup is ideal for traders who seek structured, pattern-based entries.
The SL is well-protected below major support, while targets are based on classical technical projections.
📅 Timeframe Outlook
Short-term (Intraday/Swing): Watch for confirmation of the breakout-retail and hold above 1.1400 for continuation.
Medium-term: A clean break above 1.1484 may open room for further upside toward 1.1530–1.1550, especially if EUR strengthens on economic catalysts.
📌 Summary & Conclusion
The Triple Bottom pattern on EUR/USD is a textbook bullish reversal formation.
Breakout and retest of the neckline around 1.1450 presents an excellent opportunity for long entries with low downside risk.
The setup is supported by technical confluence, price structure, and market psychology.
Proper risk management and patience for confirmation will be key to capturing the full potential of this move.
✅ Pro Tip for Traders
“Let the breakout happen. Don’t chase it. Instead, wait for the retest—where fear creates opportunity.”
Market Context & Background
After an extended downtrend, EUR/USD began consolidating in a horizontal range, indicating market indecision and possible accumulation. Over the past several sessions, price action has shown multiple failed attempts to break lower, forming a Triple Bottom pattern—a powerful bullish reversal signal when confirmed with a neckline breakout.
This analysis explores the full structure of the pattern, trade entry strategy, price targets, and risk management zones for both swing and intraday traders.
🔍 Pattern Structure Breakdown
1. Triple Bottom Formation
The pattern began forming after a sharp downtrend, where the market found consistent support at ~1.1317.
Price tested this level three distinct times—each time rejecting strongly—marking Bottom 1, Bottom 2, and Bottom 3 on the chart.
This signifies strong buyer interest and a likely exhaustion of selling pressure.
Between each bottom, price made moderate rallies, indicating buyers are gradually stepping in and absorbing the downward momentum.
2. Neckline (Resistance Area)
The horizontal resistance zone around 1.1450–1.1460 represents the neckline of the pattern.
This area acted as a supply zone earlier in the downtrend (see April 22 high), where price faced heavy rejection.
A breakout and successful retest of this zone will confirm the Triple Bottom pattern and likely attract further bullish interest.
📊 Trade Setup & Strategy
Entry Strategy
Entry is suggested on the pullback after the neckline breakout, near the 1.1380–1.1400 zone.
This offers a low-risk, high-reward setup by entering on a retest of previous resistance turned support.
The ideal entry candle would be a bullish engulfing, pin bar, or breakout-retest confirmation on the lower timeframes (15M/30M).
Targets
TP1 (Take Profit 1): 1.1454 – Key neckline level, offering a clean and conservative exit for partial profits.
TP2 (Final Target): 1.1484 – This level is derived by projecting the height of the Triple Bottom pattern above the neckline, aligning with a historical resistance level.
Stop Loss (SL)
Placed just below the lowest bottom (1.1317), protecting the trade against a false breakout or pattern invalidation.
Traders may tighten this to 1.1340–1.1350 based on their risk tolerance and time horizon.
🧠 Technical Insights & Trader Psychology
Volume Analysis: Increasing volume on the upward legs from each bottom suggests accumulation by institutional buyers.
Market Sentiment: With USD under potential pressure from upcoming macro data, the pair is primed for bullish momentum.
Breakout Psychology: Once the neckline is breached, traders who missed the entry or were previously short may fuel the breakout by either buying or exiting shorts—this could lead to explosive price action.
Trap Avoidance: The pullback strategy avoids FOMO buying and provides a safe entry zone supported by structure.
📉 Risk/Reward Profile
Entry Zone 1.1380–1.1400
Stop Loss 1.1317
Take Profit 1 1.1454
Take Profit 2 1.1484
R:R Ratio Approx. 1:2.5 to 1:3
This setup is ideal for traders who seek structured, pattern-based entries.
The SL is well-protected below major support, while targets are based on classical technical projections.
📅 Timeframe Outlook
Short-term (Intraday/Swing): Watch for confirmation of the breakout-retail and hold above 1.1400 for continuation.
Medium-term: A clean break above 1.1484 may open room for further upside toward 1.1530–1.1550, especially if EUR strengthens on economic catalysts.
📌 Summary & Conclusion
The Triple Bottom pattern on EUR/USD is a textbook bullish reversal formation.
Breakout and retest of the neckline around 1.1450 presents an excellent opportunity for long entries with low downside risk.
The setup is supported by technical confluence, price structure, and market psychology.
Proper risk management and patience for confirmation will be key to capturing the full potential of this move.
✅ Pro Tip for Traders
“Let the breakout happen. Don’t chase it. Instead, wait for the retest—where fear creates opportunity.”
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.