EUR/GBP/USD: Oct 9th, 2023 - Oct 13th, 2023

Updated

It is officially Q4 and I am expecting the next quarterly shift soon.

Overall, I am still bearish EUR and GBP on the quarter, but I am open to buying this month given that I am expecting this week to trigger the monthly manipulation and next week to trigger the quarterly manipulation phase.

I want to eventually see the BISI(M) below price engaged on both EUR and GBP, but for now I believe we are due for a retracement, at the very least some bullishness this week.

USD has already dug into it's SIBI(M) and printed a daily swing high while leaving it, which means that could be all is needed for the quarterly shift.

From this week's price action, I am wanting to see if USD commits lower and a draw towards the -BB(M) on EUR and GBP, but will watch for how price interacts with the SIBI[W] above prev. week's high(PWH). If I am correct in my analysis I expect these SIBI[W]s to invert.

EUR: Longs from IFVG[4H/D], Targeting -BB[M]
GBP: Longs from +Reaper[4h], Targeting -BB[M]
USD: Shorts from -IFVG[D], Targeting +BISI[4h]

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GBPUSD:

US Dollar:
tradingview.com/x/tajeym6x/]https://www.tradingview.com/x/tajeym6x/

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*Not open to opposing analysis unless you can prove to me how being right analytically equates to 100% success when executing. I am here strictly to journal, while having a public conversation with myself for accountability purposes. Thank you.*

Note

I will be risking on:

-Wed: (03:00-04:30) or (09:00-10:30)
-Thurs: (03:00-04:30) or (09:00-10:30)
-Fri: (03:00-04:30) or (09:00-10:30)

*1 trade per day / 6% gain max per week*

Trade active

Not gonna lie... I risked it.
80% off at 1:3RR(5 pips : 15 pips)

160 pip target

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1:3RR (5pip:15pip)

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Stops in profit here.

Top entry still full risk

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Didnt have the right numbers in on tradingview, the position has ran 1:3RR so im closing 80%

Trade closed: target reached

20% Still working.

Done for the day

Trade active

Wifi went out, but took a long during London, TP delivered 4.5R.

Currently floating around 3R on the long taken in NY, looking for a 11R

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Closed out around 28% of the position above the 3R consider that it's pushing 12:00pm EST

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Realizing that the USD analysis did not go through in the initial post so here it is.

On Monday USD pushed up into the -IFVG[D] before moving away aggressively. There is a chance of CPI being extremely one sided and aggressively bearish for USD. I've studied CPI release extensively over the year and it's the one week out of the month that produces Monday high of week the most. If I am correct and my buy on EUR remains open through tmrw, I think PPI, FOMC and CPI together is enough of a catalyst to book the -BB[M] that I am targeting.

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Also seeing that USD has disrespected the BISI(W) while respecting the newly created SIBI(4h). This builds confidence behind the idea of lower USD and higher EUR.

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50% of the original position is now closed (4.3R) at BSL(D) mitigation as the 12pm bell rung.

Done for the day, will be back tmrw.

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GBP looks to be reacting to the +Reaper as outlined in my pre-market analysis

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EUR 10/11/2023 Analysis:

EUR has closed above PWH. I have previous day's high and low delineated. Going into the new day and im favoring the high. Nice reaction from the +MB(1h) and the +VI(4h). There's room for a retracement back into the trading range, but Im not worried about being stopped out of my longs yet, but will look again during London.

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Watching for a purge of SSL before adding back on the full position size

Trade active

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TP adjusted to 5.4R

Should pass phase 1 of my evaluation if it delivers.

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Beautiful reaction.
OB and BB have been printed, I like -2STD at the very least.

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Too much heat for my risk tolerance at the moment.

Closed at +1 pip.

Yesterday's entry still live. Still risk on until 4:30am

Trade active

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The dip was likely just an aggressive run on interal range liq, but I trusted that if the buy was going to happen, id get another entry opportunity during Q3

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Just booked [pdh], Still looking for -2STD at the very least

Trade closed: stop reached

Stopped out of all positions.

Will be back after CPI release.

Was about 3-5 pips away from passing phase 1. Going to take some time back to allow room for PPI,FOMC and CPI to do its thing.

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Up 10.14% this week so I will be avoiding any risk before the market truly shows its hand.

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Trade active

Trade closed: stop reached

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Was looking for a small scalp trade from the purge of prev day high, there is some 1H imbalances below asia range that I wanted to see mitigated before higher pricing. I will come back after CPI release.

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+8.96% on the week right now.

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Stops were just too tight, Forward tested another short entry during Q3 of London and got the 1:3 delivery.

Noting that the first entry would've responded well to the 1:2(10 pip:20pip) RR model.

Trade active

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Looking for a small retracement back into the imbalance and will conclude my trading day there.

SL will conclude my trading week.

Trade closed: stop reached

Done for the week there.

I am feeling a bit vengeful and I do not want to spiral out of control. I will be stepping away from the computer now and coming back to recap how I could've utilized the opportunities this week in a more effective way after a shower.

Note

10/9/2023-10/13/2023 Top Down Analysis Recap:

Monthly:
On the monthly there is a clear buyside liquidity purge event that took place in July. September gave a shift on the monthly, printing a bearish breaker block in the process. I was allowing for a retracement back into the block, but it looks like the high created during Q4 of September was enough to send us back the opposite direction. The closest sellside liquidity pool is inside of the monthly BISI and is being used to anticipate bearishness on EUR until liquidity is purged. Previous month's low has already been swept so the likelihood of us seeing the high taken in the near future is low.
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Weekly:
There is a clear SIBI in price and price seems to be respecting it after digging into it deeply. Looking closely inside of the monthly BISI you can see where the nearest sellside liquidity pool is resting here on the weekly timeframe. That is my overall target before I expect a significant shift in orderflow. Im not expecting previous week's low to be taken going into tomorrow, but it is a possibility.
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Daily:
On the daily you can see that price has responded to the weekly SIBI and inverted a daily BISI in the process. This daily BISI will now be used as a daily -IFVG. I believe that the daily short term and intermed term lows look most attractive after a purge of internal range liquidity. Friday's close could create a SIBI [D] for me to play off going into next week.

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4 Hour:
Taking a closer look at what took place this week, The -4STD from the 4 hour liquidity void is resting right below my weekly STL target. This doesnt mean we will see it booked. Simply puts it in range and will act as a anticipatory stop for this move IF it begins to sell off. A re-distribution of orders after -1STD and a close below -2.5STD is needed before -4STD can be trusted as a target. Nonetheless, the ITL [D] resting between -1STD and -1.5STD is a good sign that the redistribution of orders will occur after that low is purged.

Note

Monday:

Going into Q2 of London, I saw Q1 hovering below a 15m SIBI after Asia dug 50% into the NWOG before moving away. I wanted to see mitigation of that SIBI on the 2m/3m timeframe between (01:50-02:30) or (03:20-04:00) then an aggressive run into the 15m BISI + Daily -IFVG C.E. I executed early and used a 5:15pip RR model. The 10:XXpip RR model seems to be the most reliable. 10:20(1:2RR) is what I am working towards trusting. From now , I will be moving stops in profit at +20pips in attempt to catch 3R as long as DOL allows for it. The goal is to carve out a replicable monthly income. 10K USD to be exact. This is 1:2R(5x) or 1:3R(3.5x) risking 1% per trade on a 100K account size.

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Tuesday:

Going into London on Tuesday, I was bullish on the day. I liked the displacement that followed after engaging the 15m BISI / Daily +IFVG C.E. I was most comfortable buying below the 17:00 low from Monday. Q1 of London hovered above the 17:00 low which increased its attractiveness. My safest position would be taken between (01:50-02:30) and (03:20-04:00) as the equal lows were purged. 10:30pip RR model.

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Tuesday(NY):

Going it NY, I noticed Q4 of London left behind a false high above the C.E of the weekly SIBI C.E I was targeting. I anticipated a bullish expansion after the 15m +Reaper IFVG was engaged between (07:50-08:30). 10:30pip RR model delivered flawlessly so far. Looking for anything more than 1:3 isnt needed and reduces he replicability of the profits acquired. Let this be proof that if the model presents itself, 1:3RR will deliver most of the time and will be enough to carve out a replicable income long term. This wouldve made the 3rd 1:3 to deliver this week. I would only need 1 more trade at half risk to knock out the month. Trading with the red folders isnt needed with the scalping style of trading im doing at the moment. I will execute as my model presents itself between the hours of (01:50-2:30) and (07:50-08:30) Monday-Thursday. By Friday I should be far enough in profit to sit out or in deep enough drawdown to just wait for the next week.

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Wednesday:

Going into Q2 of London, I liked that we were holding above PWH and wanted to see the 15m BISI used again between (01:50-02:30) to get long with a 10:30pip RR model. I ended closing early on the original idea as my confidence began to fade. The ideas both saw 20+ pips before a very unexpected melt. This is a seek and destroy program. It is important not to lose courage during these types of market programs. The loss in inevitable if profits are not secured and the 1:3s ae less likely to run here. Best way to combat this type of market profile is to have things in place like a SL in profit after 20+ pips. If only looking for another 1% gain to finish out the month, It wouldve been given here around the 1:2 mark.

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Seek & Destroy Program

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Thursday:

Going into Q2 of London I noticed we were trading relatively high on the week and still inside the previous day's candle(seek and destroy). I wanted to see the prev. day 's high act as liquidity for the shorts towards the other side of the prev. day's candle. A purge of the high between (01:50-02:30) would trigger an entry. I took a 5:15pip RR. The decision was influenced by the erratic behavior from the previous day's program. Thats what S&D pattern arent meant to do. Derail your momentum. A 10:30pip RR model wouldve delivered + more after CPI release. This trade for sure wouldve been enough to stop trading for the rest of the month for me.

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Conclusion:

The week presented 5 perfect opportunities that all ran +20 pips and 4/5 ran the entire 30 pips.

Potential 12% gain
Actual 8.42% gain

Adjustments:
-Purge of Q1 + HTF PDA is law.
-10:30pip RR model is law.
- Stop profit at +20 pip is law.
-There must be a HTF target within 30-60 pips of entry.
-I will only risk on the 2nd and 3rd Mon-Thurs of each month
-3.5 wins a 1:3RR and then cease trading for the month.

ZaireMiller

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