EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook – Expanded Flat Playing Out?

1 720
EUR/USD appears to be unfolding a classic expanded flat correction for wave (4):

Wave A formed as a 3-wave zigzag

Wave B retraced beyond the start of A — a key trait of expanded flats

Now looking for a 5-wave C-leg decline toward the 1.1122 – 1.1002 area

Aligned with 1.0–1.618 extensions of A

RSI + MACD divergence adds bearish confirmation at the B top

Potential bullish reversal zone into late June / early July

As long as price holds below the B high (~1.1650), the bearish path in wave C remains in play.

📍 Target zone: 1.1122–1.1002
📈 Bias: Bearish short-term, bullish long-term (wave 5 up next)
Note
Charts:
🔹 1H Structure with Daily Profile Overlay
🔹 5-Min Elliott Wave Count into FVG
snapshot
snapshot

🟦 Chart 1 – 1H Structure & Trendline Support
A rising wedge is forming just beneath supply, with momentum indicators stalling.
📌 A break below the red trendline (~1.15718) would confirm early weakness and validate bearish intent.
📍 1.15514 remains a key intraday structure break — and a daily close below it would solidify bearish control.

🟩 Chart 2 – 5-Minute Elliott Count + FVG Confluence
Intricate subwaves completing inside the 0.618–0.764 fib retracement zone.
Final push tagged the FVG and trendline cluster, with rejection forming at the overlap.
🛑 Invalidation remains above 1.16311 — a move above that would invalidate the wave (ii) scenario.

📉 Bias: Bearish while below 1.16311
📍Confirmation: Break of 1.15718 and 1.15514
🕯️ Daily close below 1.15514 = high conviction for wave (iii)
🎯 Targets: 1.1119 → 1.0809

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