Is Euro Bullish?
Updated
Hello and welcome to my trading idea about EUR/USD.
I want to explain to you why I think that EUR will be bullish in the next few days. So, first of all, look at the weekly chart.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jgQ5fbZp/
In this chart, you can see a full 5 waves cycle followed by 3 wave correction (zigzag). So, after a correction, a new impulse starts and we can see that in the new bullish trend from 2017 to 2018, followed by another correction.
Let's see with zoom the second wave of the two cycles...
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kCkBPuHu/
Here is the first big cycle. Look at the retracement level and save it in your mind.
Now let's see the second little cycle:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/7PgoZcDY/
We have a similar behavior about the correction of the first wave. So I think that we can say that our USD has this behavior about 2nd waves.
This and the completed ABC correction before the new cycle allow me to think that this is a new cycle.
Said that I think that the market is bullish in the long run.
Now let's see the short term situation:
FIRST ANALYSIS
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bKNEd7gs/
SECOND ANALYSIS
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2sAhW6LM/
In the first analysis, the cycle is completed and a correction is going on. In the second, the cycle is completing its fifth wave or we need a bit more time (1 or 2 days) to complete the 4th wave and start the last wave.
SO, WHAT ANALYSIS DO WE CHOOSE?
So if we consider the second analysis, the 4th wave could be a double zigzag. Very strange in its form but it can be. If instead, we consider the first analysis, the 4th wave is a zigzag and it has more sense.
More the wave in this chart does not seem a correction wave, a requisite for double zigzag (upvote for first vision):
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CGG4HPIl/
There is also an element that can give us trust about the second vision:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ezq1IXO7/
Here I can see this cycle corrected by a zig-zag with the same level of retracement of the other 2nd waves.
So I can think that this is the second wave of the fifth wave of the cycle, in this way:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5lyv406K/
CONCLUSION
So if the 2nd vision is correct, we can expect a new cycle for completing the biggest cycle.
The level for invalidating this idea is the following because the 2nd wave cannot retrace more than 100% of wave 1:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NQxXhCva/
More, we stay at the level of the 4th wave of the previous wave of a less general degree, which is a support for the length of the 4th wave.
Setting this level as a stop loss, you can have a trade with a risk/reward ratio of more than 3, which is very good.
If the first vision is correct, we can this movement, more or less:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bsq99wYE/.
The invalidation level for the first vision is this:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/PSXhwi95/
So... we will wait for the market and move as snipers!
If you like the idea, please like it and follow me.
Thank you for your time!
I want to explain to you why I think that EUR will be bullish in the next few days. So, first of all, look at the weekly chart.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jgQ5fbZp/
In this chart, you can see a full 5 waves cycle followed by 3 wave correction (zigzag). So, after a correction, a new impulse starts and we can see that in the new bullish trend from 2017 to 2018, followed by another correction.
Let's see with zoom the second wave of the two cycles...
https://www.tradingview.com/x/kCkBPuHu/
Here is the first big cycle. Look at the retracement level and save it in your mind.
Now let's see the second little cycle:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/7PgoZcDY/
We have a similar behavior about the correction of the first wave. So I think that we can say that our USD has this behavior about 2nd waves.
This and the completed ABC correction before the new cycle allow me to think that this is a new cycle.
Said that I think that the market is bullish in the long run.
Now let's see the short term situation:
FIRST ANALYSIS
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bKNEd7gs/
SECOND ANALYSIS
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2sAhW6LM/
In the first analysis, the cycle is completed and a correction is going on. In the second, the cycle is completing its fifth wave or we need a bit more time (1 or 2 days) to complete the 4th wave and start the last wave.
SO, WHAT ANALYSIS DO WE CHOOSE?
So if we consider the second analysis, the 4th wave could be a double zigzag. Very strange in its form but it can be. If instead, we consider the first analysis, the 4th wave is a zigzag and it has more sense.
More the wave in this chart does not seem a correction wave, a requisite for double zigzag (upvote for first vision):
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CGG4HPIl/
There is also an element that can give us trust about the second vision:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ezq1IXO7/
Here I can see this cycle corrected by a zig-zag with the same level of retracement of the other 2nd waves.
So I can think that this is the second wave of the fifth wave of the cycle, in this way:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5lyv406K/
CONCLUSION
So if the 2nd vision is correct, we can expect a new cycle for completing the biggest cycle.
The level for invalidating this idea is the following because the 2nd wave cannot retrace more than 100% of wave 1:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NQxXhCva/
More, we stay at the level of the 4th wave of the previous wave of a less general degree, which is a support for the length of the 4th wave.
Setting this level as a stop loss, you can have a trade with a risk/reward ratio of more than 3, which is very good.
If the first vision is correct, we can this movement, more or less:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bsq99wYE/.
The invalidation level for the first vision is this:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/PSXhwi95/
So... we will wait for the market and move as snipers!
If you like the idea, please like it and follow me.
Thank you for your time!
Trade active
I will go short. I see a five-wave bearish here:https://www.tradingview.com/x/3xrXXqbJ/
So I can expect a new 5 wave bearish movement after a little correction, to set a zigzag
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