Euro / U.S. Dollar
Updated

Skeptic | EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Breakout or Reversal?

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Welcome back, guys! 👋 I'm Skeptic.
Today, we're diving deep into EUR/USD, analyzing key levels and potential triggers.

🔍Recap & Current Structure:
As mentioned in our previous analysis, after the previous uptrend, EUR/USD entered a consolidation phase. Our short trigger at 1.07124 played out well, reaching an R/R of 2—if you followed the idea, you saw the results!

Now, we’ve formed a new structure, which is more visible on the 1H timeframe. After breaking the descending trendline and pulling back, we've now created a higher high, indicating a potential move toward the top of the box at 1.09453.

With DXY weakening, the expectation leans towards an uptrend continuation, but we remain flexible—if our short trigger activates, we'll take it as well because we approach the market with a two-sided, skeptical view rather than a fixed bias.

📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup):
  1. Trigger: Break & close above 1.08454
  2. Confirmation: 7 SMA below the candle during the breakout + RSI entering overbought
  3. ]Invalidation: Rejection + close back below 1.07666


📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup):
  1. Trigger: Rejection at 1.08278 + drop below 1.07666
  2. Confirmation: RSI entering oversold


⚠️ Key Notes:
Fundamentals: This Friday is NFP day—a crucial event for the markets.
Given the recent uptrend in EUR/USD, a pullback is likely, so stay prepared for both triggers.
Risk Management: Avoid overleveraging—wait for confirmed breaks before entering.

Stay sharp, and I’ll see you in the next analysis!
Trade closed: target reached
Hey guys! 👋

Hope you took advantage of the EUR/USD trigger I shared! At the very least, you should be sitting at R/R 4+ by now. This is also a great spot to secure profits. 🔥

Stay sharp & let’s keep growing together! 💰 snapshot

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