The EURUSD is trading inside a channel for the last 5 months or so. On the weekly chart, the long-term Guppy GMMA is sill well spread, indicating that there is a high probability that the price is consolidating and further down moves will occur.
On the daily chart, the long-term Guppy GMMA is compressed and the price has formed a nearly symmetric triangle inside the channel. Thus, we can expect multiple scenarios.
- Scenario 1: (blue arrows)
Since the GMMA is well spread on the weekly char, is likely that downward pressure will be dominant and the EURUSD go south.
Scenario 1.1:
Short @ 1.1230 - 1.1250. with the down break of the triangle
Stoploss @ 1.1360
Target @ 1.1058, 23.6 base of the triangle and coinciding with the lower line of the channel, price then reverses and go north...
Scenario 1.2:
Short @ 1.1230 - 1.1250. with the down break of the triangle
Stoploss @ 1.1360
Target 1 @ 1.1058, 23.6 base of the triangle and coinciding with the lower line of the channel and going further down
Target 2 @ 1.0792, 61.8% based of the triangle and coinciding with a long-term support/resistance area 1.0737 - 1.0827
Scenario 1.3:
Short @ 1.1130, with the down break of the channel
Stoploss @ 1.220
Target 1 @ 1.0792, coinciding with a long-term support/resistance area 1.0737 - 1.0827
Target 2 @ 1.0573, 61.8% width of the channel
Target 3 @ 1.0520, coinciding with a long-term support/resistance area 1.0460-1.0465, with ( and take another short here) or without retest of the lower line of the channel
Target 3 @ 1.0279, 100% width of the channel or more...
Scenario 2:
Since the markets are unpredictable, an upper break of the triangle may also be expected.
Scenario 2.1:
Long @ 1.1410
Stoploss @ 1.1360
Target1 @ 1.1682, 38.2 base of the triangle and long-term support/resistance area 1.1635-1.1690, then turns south (black arrow), forming a possible double top...
Target2 @ 1.1846-1.1947, 61.8 and 76.4 base of the triangle and coinciding both with a long-term support/resistance around 1.1875 and the upper line of the channel
Target 3 @ 1.2110, 100% base of the triangle ( unlikely target?)
Happy trading and good luck!
On the daily chart, the long-term Guppy GMMA is compressed and the price has formed a nearly symmetric triangle inside the channel. Thus, we can expect multiple scenarios.
- Scenario 1: (blue arrows)
Since the GMMA is well spread on the weekly char, is likely that downward pressure will be dominant and the EURUSD go south.
Scenario 1.1:
Short @ 1.1230 - 1.1250. with the down break of the triangle
Stoploss @ 1.1360
Target @ 1.1058, 23.6 base of the triangle and coinciding with the lower line of the channel, price then reverses and go north...
Scenario 1.2:
Short @ 1.1230 - 1.1250. with the down break of the triangle
Stoploss @ 1.1360
Target 1 @ 1.1058, 23.6 base of the triangle and coinciding with the lower line of the channel and going further down
Target 2 @ 1.0792, 61.8% based of the triangle and coinciding with a long-term support/resistance area 1.0737 - 1.0827
Scenario 1.3:
Short @ 1.1130, with the down break of the channel
Stoploss @ 1.220
Target 1 @ 1.0792, coinciding with a long-term support/resistance area 1.0737 - 1.0827
Target 2 @ 1.0573, 61.8% width of the channel
Target 3 @ 1.0520, coinciding with a long-term support/resistance area 1.0460-1.0465, with ( and take another short here) or without retest of the lower line of the channel
Target 3 @ 1.0279, 100% width of the channel or more...
Scenario 2:
Since the markets are unpredictable, an upper break of the triangle may also be expected.
Scenario 2.1:
Long @ 1.1410
Stoploss @ 1.1360
Target1 @ 1.1682, 38.2 base of the triangle and long-term support/resistance area 1.1635-1.1690, then turns south (black arrow), forming a possible double top...
Target2 @ 1.1846-1.1947, 61.8 and 76.4 base of the triangle and coinciding both with a long-term support/resistance around 1.1875 and the upper line of the channel
Target 3 @ 1.2110, 100% base of the triangle ( unlikely target?)
Happy trading and good luck!
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.