EUR/USD at Critical Resistance – Bearish Reversal Ahead?

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The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.12468, showing signs of hesitation near a major supply zone identified between 1.12400 – 1.14000, a level that has historically acted as strong resistance.

Key Technical Observations (4H Chart):

Supply Zone (1.12400 – 1.14000): Price reacted strongly here in the past, and we're seeing another potential reversal setup as sellers begin to step in.

Bearish Divergence on recent highs (check RSI/MACD) confirms weakening bullish momentum.

Double Top Formation forming just below 1.14000, a classic reversal pattern.

Break Below 1.12000 could trigger a sell-off toward 1.09000, with further downside to 1.04000 if macro sentiment aligns.

Demand Zone remains solid around 1.03400 – 1.04000, where buyers previously pushed the pair higher.


Fundamental Catalysts to Watch:

Upcoming ECB & FOMC statements (see icons marked on the chart).

US Jobs Data & CPI releases may heavily influence USD strength.

Geopolitical tensions and Eurozone economic projections also playing a role in sentiment.


My Trading Plan:

Watching for bearish confirmation (e.g., 4H bearish engulfing candle) below 1.12400.

Short Entry Zone: 1.12200 – 1.12400

Target 1: 1.09000

Target 2: 1.04000

SL: Above 1.14000 zone (tight risk management).


Conclusion:
This could be a high-risk reversal zone with great R:R setup if confirmed. Always wait for price action confirmation and watch for news catalysts!

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