EUR/USD Expected Move – Elliott Wave & ICT Breakdown
(📌 No Trades, Just Setup & Rules Used for Analysis)
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📌 Elliott Wave Breakdown – Structure & Expected Path
1️⃣ Identifying the Macro Structure
📊 The larger timeframe on EUR/USD shows a corrective structure after the impulse down from 1.12x, which aligns with either:
A Three-Wave (ABC) Zigzag Correction
A Five-Wave Impulse with Ongoing Wave 2 Retracement
🔹 Key Considerations:
✅ If ABC correction, we are currently in Wave C towards 1.0850-1.10 before further decline.
✅ If Wave 2 Retracement, then a Wave 3 Bullish Expansion should follow.
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2️⃣ Elliott Wave Rules Applied to Confirm This Structure
💡 Wave A: The Initial Down Move
Consisted of 5 sub-waves, confirming an impulse move downward from 1.12x to 1.018.
This move confirmed the start of a corrective phase or the end of a larger impulsive cycle.
💡 Wave B: The Countertrend Retracement (Current Stage)
Typically retraces between 38.2% - 88.6% Fib of Wave A.
In this case, the current Wave B zone is developing between 1.034 - 1.057.
If B Wave is still active, it can extend up to 1.085 - 1.10 before reversal.
If Wave B is complete, we are starting Wave C down to create a new low.
💡 Wave C: The Final Move Before Decision Point
If we see a full ABC Zigzag, Wave C should extend to 1.0850-1.10, completing the structure.
If it fails early (below 1.0680), the structure is invalid, and we re-enter bearish Wave 3 directly.
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📌 ICT Breakdown – Liquidity, Order Blocks & Market Psychology
1️⃣ Identifying Market Structure & MSS (Market Structure Shift)
📊 The price action broke below 1.0256, indicating a bearish structure shift.
📊 However, the presence of Fair Value Gaps (FVG) & Order Blocks (OB) suggests liquidity pools that must be mitigated before the next major move.
🔹 Key Considerations:
✅ A Market Structure Shift (MSS) occurred below 1.0256, meaning a correction was needed.
✅ A Bullish FVG + Order Block at 1.0200-1.0250 supports an upward move before bearish continuation.
✅ Liquidity pools exist at 1.0570, 1.0850, and 1.10, meaning smart money may push the price higher before reversing.
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2️⃣ ICT Rules Applied to Confirm Price Action
💡 Sell-Side Liquidity Grab Before Bullish Move
Large liquidity pools sit below 1.0200.
This was taken out, which suggests a fakeout before a true bullish move.
💡 Fair Value Gaps & Order Blocks for Entries
Bullish Order Block (OB) at 1.0218 aligns with Wave 2 retracement.
FVG between 1.028 - 1.034 suggests price must return to fill before resuming bullish.
💡 Sell-Side & Buy-Side Liquidity Traps
Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) below 1.0200 was grabbed, supporting a bullish reversal.
Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) exists at 1.0680, 1.0850, and 1.10, meaning price could target these zones before reversing.
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📌 Conclusion: Why These Trades Were Chosen
📌 Elliott Wave:
The ABC corrective move suggests 1.0850 is a required target before reversing.
If this fails to reach 1.0850, it means we enter Wave 3 downward immediately from 1.0570-1.0680.
📌 ICT:
Smart money needs to clear liquidity pools before reversing.
Liquidity above 1.0850-1.10 must be taken before institutions flip the market bearish.
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📌 Next Steps for Confirmation
✅ If Wave B extends further to 1.085-1.10, we wait for reversal signs at those levels.
✅ If Wave B has already completed, we monitor for early rejection at 1.0570-1.0680 for a short setup.
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🚀 This is the combined Elliott Wave & ICT move logic for EUR/USD.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.