EURUSD H1 04/12/2024 - SELL below 1.04900 OR BUY above 1.05150
Time Frame Analysis
D1 (Daily Timeframe)
H4 (4-Hour Timeframe)
Trend: Price is consolidating below the 200 SMA and inside the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating uncertainty.
H1 (Hourly Timeframe)
Trend: Consolidating within a tight range of 1.0490–1.0510.
Trade Scenarios
Scenario A: Bullish Breakout (BUY Setup)
Rationale: If the price holds above 1.0490 support and breaks above 1.0515, it could target the next resistance levels.
Setup Details:
Entry Price: Above 1.0515 (breakout confirmation).
Stop-Loss: 1.0490 (below consolidation support).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0530 (H4 Ichimoku resistance).
TP2: 1.0550 (Daily resistance level).
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Scenario B: Bearish Breakdown (SELL Setup)
Rationale: If the price breaks below 1.0490, it could target lower support levels, aligning with the broader bearish trend.
Setup Details:
Entry Price: Below 1.0490 (breakdown confirmation).
Stop-Loss: 1.0510 (above consolidation).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0465 (next key support).
TP2: 1.0440 (H4 and Daily support area).
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Correlated Instruments to Monitor
DXY (US Dollar Index):
A weaker DXY supports the BUY scenario (EUR/USD up).
A stronger DXY supports the SELL scenario (EUR/USD down).
Gold (XAU/USD):
If gold rises, it could weaken the USD and support a BUY trade on EUR/USD.
US 10-Year Treasury Yields:
Rising yields favor USD strength (SELL scenario).
Falling yields favor USD weakness (BUY scenario).
D1 (Daily Timeframe)
- Trend: Bearish overall, with the price below the Ichimoku Cloud and the 200 SMA. However, the price is consolidating above the 1.0490–1.0500 support zone.
- Indicators:
RSI: 38.7, near oversold but stabilizing.
Stochastic: Slightly bearish but approaching a bullish crossover near 50.
MACD: Negative but narrowing, showing consolidation. - Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0550–1.0580 (Daily Ichimoku and prior highs).
Support: 1.0480–1.0490 (Key structural support).
H4 (4-Hour Timeframe)
Trend: Price is consolidating below the 200 SMA and inside the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating uncertainty.
- Indicators:
RSI: 44, slightly bearish.
Stochastic: Neutral, with potential for a bullish crossover.
MACD: Negative but flat, showing low momentum. - Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0530 (upper Ichimoku boundary), 1.0550.
Support: 1.0490 (lower Ichimoku boundary), 1.0465.
H1 (Hourly Timeframe)
Trend: Consolidating within a tight range of 1.0490–1.0510.
- Indicators:
RSI: 46, leaning bearish but neutral.
Stochastic: Slight bearish crossover but near oversold, with potential for reversal.
MACD: Flat, showing consolidation.
ATR: 16 pips, indicating low volatility. - Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0515–1.0530 (recent highs and Ichimoku resistance).
Support: 1.0490 (current floor), 1.0465 (next support below).
M30 (30-Minute Timeframe) - Trend: Similar to H1, consolidating within a tight range.
- Indicators: Neutral with signs of potential support near 1.0490.
Trade Scenarios
Scenario A: Bullish Breakout (BUY Setup)
Rationale: If the price holds above 1.0490 support and breaks above 1.0515, it could target the next resistance levels.
Setup Details:
Entry Price: Above 1.0515 (breakout confirmation).
Stop-Loss: 1.0490 (below consolidation support).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0530 (H4 Ichimoku resistance).
TP2: 1.0550 (Daily resistance level).
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Scenario B: Bearish Breakdown (SELL Setup)
Rationale: If the price breaks below 1.0490, it could target lower support levels, aligning with the broader bearish trend.
Setup Details:
Entry Price: Below 1.0490 (breakdown confirmation).
Stop-Loss: 1.0510 (above consolidation).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0465 (next key support).
TP2: 1.0440 (H4 and Daily support area).
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Correlated Instruments to Monitor
DXY (US Dollar Index):
A weaker DXY supports the BUY scenario (EUR/USD up).
A stronger DXY supports the SELL scenario (EUR/USD down).
Gold (XAU/USD):
If gold rises, it could weaken the USD and support a BUY trade on EUR/USD.
US 10-Year Treasury Yields:
Rising yields favor USD strength (SELL scenario).
Falling yields favor USD weakness (BUY scenario).
Note
SELL trade was executed, however it has triggered the S/L, I have opened the BUY trade manually
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.