Hello traders
I have taken a break from trying to trade this chaotic mess we have witnessed over the last few months.
Liberation Day, Big Beautiful Bill, the Middle East as volatile as ever, Iranian nukes destroyed, etc. etc.
On the domestic USA front we have also witnessed daily headlines of the Trump administration being sued, anti-immigration campaign promises being fulfilled, the Judicial system being undermined, for the Love of God, the President of the United States of America saying that he will have to check with his lawyers if he should observe the constitution. And...the independence of the FOMC being threatened on a daily basis. So much for law and order.
Smoke and mirrors, folks. Distractions and chaos.
But the technical indicators never lie. The indicators also reflect the true fundamentals.
In this case, USA inflation is heading higher again. keep an eye on tomorrow's CPE print. Labor market seems OK for now. Therefore, the two projected rate cuts by the FOMC for 2025 have already been priced into the DXY and US 10Y yield. No amount of bullying or public pondering who Chair Powell's replacement will be, can change the fundamentals. Inflation is rearing it's ugly head again. Gold and Bitcoin are both showing daily dojis.
The EUR/USD has already turned down from the 0.786% Fibonacci and there is clear divergence between price and RSI. The parallel up channel also seems to confirm an impending downturn in EUR/USD.
I did initiate a short EUR/USD position at 1.1688 and my entry order to add to the position at 1.1740 just shy of the 0.786% Fibonacci was also fulfilled.
Best of luck all.
I have taken a break from trying to trade this chaotic mess we have witnessed over the last few months.
Liberation Day, Big Beautiful Bill, the Middle East as volatile as ever, Iranian nukes destroyed, etc. etc.
On the domestic USA front we have also witnessed daily headlines of the Trump administration being sued, anti-immigration campaign promises being fulfilled, the Judicial system being undermined, for the Love of God, the President of the United States of America saying that he will have to check with his lawyers if he should observe the constitution. And...the independence of the FOMC being threatened on a daily basis. So much for law and order.
Smoke and mirrors, folks. Distractions and chaos.
But the technical indicators never lie. The indicators also reflect the true fundamentals.
In this case, USA inflation is heading higher again. keep an eye on tomorrow's CPE print. Labor market seems OK for now. Therefore, the two projected rate cuts by the FOMC for 2025 have already been priced into the DXY and US 10Y yield. No amount of bullying or public pondering who Chair Powell's replacement will be, can change the fundamentals. Inflation is rearing it's ugly head again. Gold and Bitcoin are both showing daily dojis.
The EUR/USD has already turned down from the 0.786% Fibonacci and there is clear divergence between price and RSI. The parallel up channel also seems to confirm an impending downturn in EUR/USD.
I did initiate a short EUR/USD position at 1.1688 and my entry order to add to the position at 1.1740 just shy of the 0.786% Fibonacci was also fulfilled.
Best of luck all.
Trade closed manually
I closed both positions this morning for+50 pips. It appears that EUR/USD is bouncing again on the rumor that a trade deal has been reached between the USA and EU. However, the increase in global bond yields is something to keep an eye on.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.