The EUR/USD pair is confirming a very strong bullish structure. On the weekly chart, the price is positioned above a key supply zone between 1.1350 and 1.1450, after strongly breaking through previous resistances.
The current consolidation at the top of the range suggests a potential continuation to the upside, with a first target at 1.1500 and an extended target at 1.1600.
Retail market sentiment shows a clear majority of short positions on EUR/USD.
This supports a contrarian bullish view, as historically, retail tends to be positioned against the prevailing trend.
COT report data further strengthens this outlook.
The US Dollar Index (USD Index) shows an increase in short positions among institutional traders, indicating a possible phase of dollar weakness.
Conversely, the Euro FX shows a significant increase in long positions from both non-commercial and commercial traders, highlighting institutional interest in buying the euro.
From a seasonal perspective, May tends to be neutral or slightly negative for the euro, while June historically favors moderate dollar strength.
This suggests that EUR/USD could still have room to rise over the coming weeks, but it will be important to monitor for signs of bullish exhaustion towards the end of May.
In summary, the current context favors further upside on EUR/USD as long as the price remains above the 1.1300 support.
However, it will be crucial to watch for the first signs of weakness as we approach June.
The current consolidation at the top of the range suggests a potential continuation to the upside, with a first target at 1.1500 and an extended target at 1.1600.
Retail market sentiment shows a clear majority of short positions on EUR/USD.
This supports a contrarian bullish view, as historically, retail tends to be positioned against the prevailing trend.
COT report data further strengthens this outlook.
The US Dollar Index (USD Index) shows an increase in short positions among institutional traders, indicating a possible phase of dollar weakness.
Conversely, the Euro FX shows a significant increase in long positions from both non-commercial and commercial traders, highlighting institutional interest in buying the euro.
From a seasonal perspective, May tends to be neutral or slightly negative for the euro, while June historically favors moderate dollar strength.
This suggests that EUR/USD could still have room to rise over the coming weeks, but it will be important to monitor for signs of bullish exhaustion towards the end of May.
In summary, the current context favors further upside on EUR/USD as long as the price remains above the 1.1300 support.
However, it will be crucial to watch for the first signs of weakness as we approach June.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.