The technical formation is cristal clear. Look at the 4hr char.
Fundamentals are not clear as the technicals, but smart money is posioned themself long ago and constantly buying reasonable dips, since its a probability game now.
Is the Ukraine war will end in the comming months Yes: 60%
Europe inflation is under control? Yes 80%
ECB will cut on th next meeting? No 60%
Will europe profit from the end of the war trough reconstruction? 50%
Germany elections are done coalition will be formed and will function. ( German politicians already have done a self-revising process and they wont fail.)
USA will impose severe tarrifs on European Union: 10%-(chance)
Is German economy bottling out: Yes altough france needs to join for party. Italy is italy : We love them and feed them.
USA: Is the economy strong as they claim?
In the next post we gonna have look at it. Just a hint: How the GDP calculated and what the USA goverment wants in future. Every actions is effectecting the GDP calculations and not on the most positive way.
to be continued.
Fundamentals are not clear as the technicals, but smart money is posioned themself long ago and constantly buying reasonable dips, since its a probability game now.
Is the Ukraine war will end in the comming months Yes: 60%
Europe inflation is under control? Yes 80%
ECB will cut on th next meeting? No 60%
Will europe profit from the end of the war trough reconstruction? 50%
Germany elections are done coalition will be formed and will function. ( German politicians already have done a self-revising process and they wont fail.)
USA will impose severe tarrifs on European Union: 10%-(chance)
Is German economy bottling out: Yes altough france needs to join for party. Italy is italy : We love them and feed them.
USA: Is the economy strong as they claim?
In the next post we gonna have look at it. Just a hint: How the GDP calculated and what the USA goverment wants in future. Every actions is effectecting the GDP calculations and not on the most positive way.
to be continued.
Trade active
Something is cooking all around the markets. RISK OFF! Which is green and and risky close. Note
We've had a turbulent week, but now the game has changed. Naturally, the Euro is strengthening because the European Union has stepped in to replace the Americans, and it is likely that in the future, the EU will finance this war both with weapons and money. But most importantly, if arms production ramps up—which is what the market is pricing in—it won't just be about weapons, but also missiles, tanks, and the entire defense industry essentially coming to life. As a result, this will pull the European Union out of recession and, moreover, put it on a strong growth trajectory.However, what we are seeing now in the Euro exchange rate will last only until new news emerges—perhaps that Ukraine is willing to reach an agreement with the United States, that the U.S. will provide the necessary defense, or, in a worse scenario, that Ukraine capitulates because it cannot hold out long enough for the European Union’s defense industry to supply it with sufficient weapons for defense.
Ironically, this latter scenario might actually be the better one because, even in this case, the European Union’s ambition to arm itself would remain—perhaps even grow stronger. As a result, the industry would not come to a halt, and things would not return to the old normal.
Not to mention that the GDP of the United States has suddenly taken a downward turn. Growth is much worse than expected, as confirmed by data from the Atlanta Fed. Furthermore, the U.S. trade policy—affecting China, Mexico, Canada, and soon, likely Europe—is reshaping global market relations. This includes China moving closer to Europe and Europe strengthening ties with India.
More extreme scenarios could also arise
Trade closed manually
Im out although its may nt the top. 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.