EURUSD -- SHORT

There is now high probability that we might test 1.1298 Area again due

-- Germany politics
-- Italy Budget Drama
-- BREXIT negotiations
-- US Dollar (DXY) Strength

Note

EURUSD has been very volatile by alternating for -30 or +30 pips since Sunday open

--started with dropping to 1.1386 from friday's close of 1.1404 and then shot up touching 1.1414 then dropped to 1.1380 then shot up again to 1.1416 and then dropped again to 1.1360 . it the shot up to 1.1398 the dropped back to 1.1368 . Finally it shot back up to 1.1402 and then back to 1.1375 but now its at 1.1394

What next ?

Phew!!!! what a directionless EURUSD

Note

Its been directionless Market for the last 2 days , The fundamentals show weak economic data from EURO Zone.

The EURO Bulls are also protecting the 1.1335 Support with Options and Cash at all costs , if The EURO Bears breach 1.1335 then the flood gates are open to below 1.1200s .

At this point , i think EURUSD will keep drifting lower or sideways as it dances up and down

Note

Options Expiring today at 10:00 am EST New York time

1.1400 -- 1.49 Billion
1.1380 -- 520 Million
1.1320 -- 151 million
1.1300 -- BARRIER ( this might be what is being protected by the a Large Hedge Fund -- So every time EURUSD approaches the 1.1330 it meets huge bids)
1.1300 -- 199m

Note

US Dollar index hits 96.95 and reverses sharply to 96.77 Area and hence the EURUSD reverses from lows of 1.1348 to now 1.1375 ( almost 30 pips) .

Its been up & down market ( Increased Volatility ) for EURUSD for the last 2 days

Note

Breaking News: GBP/USD jumps as Raab says a Brexit deal is expected by November 21

a miss on US Chicago PMI & GBPUSD upswing due to BREXIT dragging the EURUSD Up from the lows of 1.1310 and making the US dollar Dip to below 96.90.

But Major Bank FX shops are updating their Clients that the US Dollar Index is heading to above 100 after it breached the 96.99 Level . This is supported by the patterns on the 10 year chart of USD

Note

New flash:

BREXIT news that UK PM May have reached a financial services deal with EU dragged EURUSD almost 40 pips in 1 hour. But does that change the fundamentals of EU trade and economic data ? Not really

Both EU & UK are Export oriented regions which need China , US and the rest of the world to maintain a sustained growth. So as long as we have

-- TARIFFS on EU from US
-- CHINA & US Tariff & Trade War
-- ITALY's Budget drama with EU
-- The EU Economic growth Data has been showing some weakness on growth for the last 6 months

Trade with the EU matters a lot, but slightly less than it used to
About 44% of UK exports in goods and services went to other countries in the EU in 2017—£274 billion out of £616 billion total exports.

UK Exports of goods and services to other EU countries were worth £274 billion in 2017, while exports from the rest of the EU to the UK were worth about £341 billion.

in 2017, Only 8% of EU exports came to UK while UK exports 44% to other EU countries.

It sounds to me that UK needs EU more than EU needs UK.

Note

Breaking News: GBP/USD falls from highs as UK officials deny Brexit deal on financial services.

UK officials say the report by the Times of London on a breakthrough on financial services is "unsubstantiated." The Times had reported that access to the all-important financial services could be maintained as long as the UK remained broadly aligned with European Union regulations post Brexit. The denial, albeit from anonymous sources, pours cold water on hopes for a comprehensive Brexit accord.

What are we to make of this ? is this rumors or " FAKE NEWS" as they call it nowdays

Note

EURUSD was dragged up by GBPUSD for rally of over 90 pips from 1.1302 and still grinding up on " BREXIT FAKE NEWS" .

NOTE: Though EURUSD was oversold and a recovery of some sort was in the cards . A shot up of over 90 on fake news is a little suspect, so exit the rally LONG and wait for confirmation, if no confirmation we can enter SHORT. Do we change our view that EURUSD is now turning Bullish ?

Well it seems the EURO Bulls have resorted to Rumors to save the EURO for now or cover their long-term positions . The same analysts who were cheering and pumping the fake news about a Brexit deal are not available for comment

Note

EURUSD just broke through 50 SMA on 4-hour chart .

A good recovery rally of over 90 pips . Now we need to see if its confirmed on Not .

If confirmed we go LONG
if not confirmed we go SHORT again

Note

UK Official: Financial services deal may be expected if overall Brexit deal is agreed this month –RTRS

Note

The BREXIT Rumors that is driving the GBPUSD and EURUSD has turned into optimism to continue the climb and the US Dollar also tumbled like a stone

US Dollar ( DXY) fell from 97.20 to now at 96.33 but still sinking like a DEAD weight . It dropped almost 1% which is huge in DXY terms.

But wait a minute. What news caused that ?

-- BREXIT Rumors that were false but then the market figured out that since we will at some point have a deal or No deal before November 21 as said by UK Brexit Secretary -- Raab , we will use optimism and push up on both the GBPUSD and EURUSD

Recall -- DXY ( US Dollar Index consists of 57% EURO & 11.3% GBP ) so if those rallied for about 100 pips on EURO and 180 pips on GBPUSD . That will definately cause the DXY to tumble big time .

Completed Trades that have been entered since this original post:

1. SELL at around 1.1375 and exit at 1.1302 --Compeleted Oct. 29th
2. BUY at around 1.1311 and exit at 1.1407 -- Completed Nov 1st

3. Current Trade:
SELL at 1.1411 and my exit will be at 1.1335 ( will tighten stops incase it goes against my analysis ) , my Stop is at 1.1500

REASON: i am not convinced that just because of Brexit Rumors it changes fundamentals on the EURUSD and GBPUSD . The bounce was expected due to oversold conditions and the Brexit Rumors and then Brexit Optimism just added the Fuel for the rally.

developeralgo222

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.

developeralgo222