🏆 EURUSD Market Update m20 short-term trade
📊 Technical Outlook
🔸Short-term: BEARS 1275
🔸1500/1540 short sell rips/rallies
🔸Mid-Term outlook: BULLS 1750
🔸bulls buy low 1250/1275 reload
🔸bulls exit at 1750 swing trade
🔸Price Target Bears: 1250/1275
🔸Price Target Bulls: 1750
🌍 Macro & Political Drivers
U.S. tax & spending concerns: The Congressional Budget Office now projects President Trump's tax‑and‑spending bill will raise deficits by about $2.8 trillion over the next decade. This massive debt addition is pressuring the U.S. dollar, as rising Treasury issuance and weaker fiscal confidence weigh on demand.
Geopolitical tensions: Escalation in the Israel–Iran conflict is pushing investors toward the safe-haven U.S. dollar. The DXY jumped to around 98.80 as President Trump’s remarks on Iran sent the EUR/USD down to approximately 1.1484.
EU developments: ECB officials, including Christine Lagarde, are doubling down on strengthening Europe’s financial infrastructure to elevate the euro as a viable alternative to the dollar — calling this a “global euro moment.”
Key resistance is around 1.1550–1.1575; downside support zones near 1.1450 and broader range 1.1360–1.1420 remain intact, though current levels suggest consolidation above the lower range. Strength from safe-haven flows could stall upward momentum.
📊 ECB Policy & Inflation Signals
The ECB cut rates by 25 bp last week to 2.0%, reinforcing the message that inflation remains subdued (1.9% in May) and prompting a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting decision approach.
ECB speakers stress “agile pragmatism” given global uncertainties, citing the euro’s ~10% rally year-to-date but cautioning amid rising oil prices and geopolitical risks.
⚡ What to Watch Next
Catalyst Outlook
U.S. yields & bond auctions More issuance tied to tax plans could steepen the curve and support the USD.
Middle East headlines Escalation may continue to offer dollar safe-haven benefits, pressuring EUR/USD.
EU economic data Inflation softness (e.g., France) could weaken ECB’s stance, re-pressuring the euro.
Technical levels Watch 1.1450 support—holds for possible rebound; resistance 1.1550–1.1575 for upside pressure.
✅ Summary
Current: EUR/USD around 1.1484, with bearish tilt amid risk aversion.
Bull case: Ongoing U.S. fiscal weakness, delayed tariffs, and ECB support for euro could cap downside.
Bear case: Safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions, Fed‑ECB divergence, and technical breakdown through 1.1450 could push toward 1.1360.
📊 Technical Outlook
🔸Short-term: BEARS 1275
🔸1500/1540 short sell rips/rallies
🔸Mid-Term outlook: BULLS 1750
🔸bulls buy low 1250/1275 reload
🔸bulls exit at 1750 swing trade
🔸Price Target Bears: 1250/1275
🔸Price Target Bulls: 1750
🌍 Macro & Political Drivers
U.S. tax & spending concerns: The Congressional Budget Office now projects President Trump's tax‑and‑spending bill will raise deficits by about $2.8 trillion over the next decade. This massive debt addition is pressuring the U.S. dollar, as rising Treasury issuance and weaker fiscal confidence weigh on demand.
Geopolitical tensions: Escalation in the Israel–Iran conflict is pushing investors toward the safe-haven U.S. dollar. The DXY jumped to around 98.80 as President Trump’s remarks on Iran sent the EUR/USD down to approximately 1.1484.
EU developments: ECB officials, including Christine Lagarde, are doubling down on strengthening Europe’s financial infrastructure to elevate the euro as a viable alternative to the dollar — calling this a “global euro moment.”
Key resistance is around 1.1550–1.1575; downside support zones near 1.1450 and broader range 1.1360–1.1420 remain intact, though current levels suggest consolidation above the lower range. Strength from safe-haven flows could stall upward momentum.
📊 ECB Policy & Inflation Signals
The ECB cut rates by 25 bp last week to 2.0%, reinforcing the message that inflation remains subdued (1.9% in May) and prompting a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting decision approach.
ECB speakers stress “agile pragmatism” given global uncertainties, citing the euro’s ~10% rally year-to-date but cautioning amid rising oil prices and geopolitical risks.
⚡ What to Watch Next
Catalyst Outlook
U.S. yields & bond auctions More issuance tied to tax plans could steepen the curve and support the USD.
Middle East headlines Escalation may continue to offer dollar safe-haven benefits, pressuring EUR/USD.
EU economic data Inflation softness (e.g., France) could weaken ECB’s stance, re-pressuring the euro.
Technical levels Watch 1.1450 support—holds for possible rebound; resistance 1.1550–1.1575 for upside pressure.
✅ Summary
Current: EUR/USD around 1.1484, with bearish tilt amid risk aversion.
Bull case: Ongoing U.S. fiscal weakness, delayed tariffs, and ECB support for euro could cap downside.
Bear case: Safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions, Fed‑ECB divergence, and technical breakdown through 1.1450 could push toward 1.1360.
Note
🚨 Market Alert: Israel-Iran Conflict Impact Forecast 📈🔴 Worst-Case Scenario: Regional War + U.S. Military Involvement
🚢 Oil (Brent): Soars to $150–$200+ if Strait of Hormuz closes
🥇 Gold: Skyrockets to $4,500–$5,000 (safe-haven rush)
₿ Bitcoin: Initial volatility; settles at $80k–$100k
📉 SPX: Crashes to 4,000–4,500
💻 NDX: Drops sharply to 15,000–16,000
🟠 Base-Case Scenario: Protracted Tension, No Major Disruption
🛢 Oil: Stabilizes at elevated $75–$95, occasional spikes
🥇 Gold: Moves higher, trading $3,500–$3,800
₿ Bitcoin: Trades steady, $90k–$110k range
📊 SPX: Pullback moderate, around 5,200–5,500
💻 NDX: Moderately lower, 18,000–19,000 range
🟢 Best-Case Scenario: Diplomatic De-Escalation
🌊 Oil: Eases down to $65–$75
🥇 Gold: Mild decline, holds at $3,300–$3,500
₿ Bitcoin: Positive sentiment, lifts to $100k–$120k
📈 SPX: Slight dip; stays strong near 5,800–6,200
💻 NDX: Minor correction, remains high at 20,000–22,000
Note
Gold Market Update: Bulls Will target 3750 USD after 3500 USD
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💎Syndicate Black
⚡️Gold/Forex auto-trading bot
📕MyFXBOOK verified 500%+ gains
💎GOLD EA target 100%+ gains/week
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💎Syndicate Black
⚡️Gold/Forex auto-trading bot
📕MyFXBOOK verified 500%+ gains
💎GOLD EA target 100%+ gains/week
🚀supercharge your trading
💎75% win rate free gold signals
t.me/syndicategold001
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.