The pullback seen in EURUSD at the start of this week, which resulted in a low of 1.1264 being registered on Tuesday may have been a natural reaction to the spike from 1.0943 on Thursday 10th April, up to 1.1473 on Friday 11th April. A quick and relentless rally (low to high) of 4.8% that caught many by surprise.
Now, against the backdrop of fresh dollar selling due to a new series of tariff headlines from the Trump administration on Wednesday, the most prominent being the ban on Nvidia from exporting certain chips to China, EURUSD has started to move back towards 1.14 again with the all-important rate decision due later today at 1315 BST.
The ECB are expected to cut interest rates by another 25bps, so anything else may be a seen as a surprise. This decision could be a close call given that the ECB committee seem to be split, with some more worried about supporting the economy through this period of trade war uncertainty, while others are more focused on the potential for trade tariffs to push inflation back higher.
Whatever the decision, the press conference, led by ECB President Lagarde, which starts at 1345 BST could also be a focal point for EURUSD volatility as traders try and glean what they can from Madame Lagarde on whether more rate cuts are possible at the next meeting in June, her thoughts on inflation, recent Euro strength and the Eurozone economy.
Technical Update: Is the Break of Long Term Resistance Significant?
The current year to date phase of EURUSD price strength has seen an impressive 12.6% advance from the January low into the latest April high (1.0184 to 1.1473).
However, what technical analysts are now beginning to focus on is the world's most heavily traded currency pair recent close above 2 potentially key resistance points on the weekly chart that coincide at 1.1275/1.1278.
These points are equal to a combination of the July 2023 high and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February 2021 to September 2022 price decline (see chart above).
While this is no guarantee of sustained phase of price strength it might well be an indication of further attempts to push towards higher levels.
Potential Resistance Levels We Now Need to Monitor
What the weekly chart above does show is that the latest strength has approached a previous failure high at 1.1494, which was posted in February 2022. Traders may well be focusing on this level next, as closing breaks of this resistance point might suggest current EURUSD strength may carry further.
Such moves could in turn lead to a more sustained phase of price strength, with the next resistance point to consider marked by the October 2022 upside extreme at 1.1691.
Potential Support Levels We Now Need to Monitor
After such an extended period of price strength over a relatively short period of time there may be potential for over-extended upside price conditions to lead to the price corrections.
With this in mind, it is the perhaps the daily EURUSD chart that might offer clues to possible support levels.
Running Fibonacci retracements on the latest phase of price strength seen between April 4th and April 10th, we see the 38.2% retracement at 1.1244, has remained intact within this week’s latest trading activity.
Any potential breaks below this level, while not suggesting a negative shift in sentiment, may prompt a deeper decline in EURUSD prices towards 1.1175, which is the 50% retracement, even 1.1106, which is the 61.8% retracement level, as seen on the chart above.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Now, against the backdrop of fresh dollar selling due to a new series of tariff headlines from the Trump administration on Wednesday, the most prominent being the ban on Nvidia from exporting certain chips to China, EURUSD has started to move back towards 1.14 again with the all-important rate decision due later today at 1315 BST.
The ECB are expected to cut interest rates by another 25bps, so anything else may be a seen as a surprise. This decision could be a close call given that the ECB committee seem to be split, with some more worried about supporting the economy through this period of trade war uncertainty, while others are more focused on the potential for trade tariffs to push inflation back higher.
Whatever the decision, the press conference, led by ECB President Lagarde, which starts at 1345 BST could also be a focal point for EURUSD volatility as traders try and glean what they can from Madame Lagarde on whether more rate cuts are possible at the next meeting in June, her thoughts on inflation, recent Euro strength and the Eurozone economy.
Technical Update: Is the Break of Long Term Resistance Significant?
The current year to date phase of EURUSD price strength has seen an impressive 12.6% advance from the January low into the latest April high (1.0184 to 1.1473).
However, what technical analysts are now beginning to focus on is the world's most heavily traded currency pair recent close above 2 potentially key resistance points on the weekly chart that coincide at 1.1275/1.1278.
These points are equal to a combination of the July 2023 high and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February 2021 to September 2022 price decline (see chart above).
While this is no guarantee of sustained phase of price strength it might well be an indication of further attempts to push towards higher levels.
Potential Resistance Levels We Now Need to Monitor
What the weekly chart above does show is that the latest strength has approached a previous failure high at 1.1494, which was posted in February 2022. Traders may well be focusing on this level next, as closing breaks of this resistance point might suggest current EURUSD strength may carry further.
Such moves could in turn lead to a more sustained phase of price strength, with the next resistance point to consider marked by the October 2022 upside extreme at 1.1691.
Potential Support Levels We Now Need to Monitor
After such an extended period of price strength over a relatively short period of time there may be potential for over-extended upside price conditions to lead to the price corrections.
With this in mind, it is the perhaps the daily EURUSD chart that might offer clues to possible support levels.
Running Fibonacci retracements on the latest phase of price strength seen between April 4th and April 10th, we see the 38.2% retracement at 1.1244, has remained intact within this week’s latest trading activity.
Any potential breaks below this level, while not suggesting a negative shift in sentiment, may prompt a deeper decline in EURUSD prices towards 1.1175, which is the 50% retracement, even 1.1106, which is the 61.8% retracement level, as seen on the chart above.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Global risk Warning CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Between 74-89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFD
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.