Euro broke above the April downtrend last month with price surging more than 3.5% off the May low. The advance failed at technical resistance into the start of June at the 1.618% extension of the May advance near 1.1455. The focus is on a reaction off this mark with a breakout of the weekly opening-range to offer some guidance in the days ahead.
The weekly-range is now set just above the objective weekly / monthly open at 1.1347. Subsequent support seen at the 2023 swing high at 1.1276 with near-term bullish invalidation at the 2024 swing high / 61.8% retracement at 1.1214- a break / close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger reversal is underway towards key support at 1.1040/74.
A topside breach of the weekly opening range exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 2025 high-day close (HDC) at 1.1514 and 1.1564/73- a region defined by the 100% extension of the May advance and the yearly swing high. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a daily close above needed to mark uptrend resumption / fuel the next major leg of the Euro advance towards 1.17.
Bottom line: A breakout of the April downtrend is now testing the first major resistance hurdle with the weekly / monthly opening-ranges taking shape just below- look for the breakout. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.1214 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the yearly high needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. ECB on tap tomorrow with NFPs slated for Friday- stay nimble into the weekly close.
-MB
The weekly-range is now set just above the objective weekly / monthly open at 1.1347. Subsequent support seen at the 2023 swing high at 1.1276 with near-term bullish invalidation at the 2024 swing high / 61.8% retracement at 1.1214- a break / close below this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger reversal is underway towards key support at 1.1040/74.
A topside breach of the weekly opening range exposes subsequent resistance objectives at the 2025 high-day close (HDC) at 1.1514 and 1.1564/73- a region defined by the 100% extension of the May advance and the yearly swing high. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached with a daily close above needed to mark uptrend resumption / fuel the next major leg of the Euro advance towards 1.17.
Bottom line: A breakout of the April downtrend is now testing the first major resistance hurdle with the weekly / monthly opening-ranges taking shape just below- look for the breakout. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.1214 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the yearly high needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. ECB on tap tomorrow with NFPs slated for Friday- stay nimble into the weekly close.
-MB
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.