Turn your attention now to geopolitics. 2016 all technical anaylsis had been wrong - and not pollsters only.
To predict any direction of EURUSD -0.62% trader needs to understand precisely what´s about the upcomming elections in Europe.
This trading idea is focused on the EURUSD -0.62% but linked to the Election in Germany, Netherlands, Italy and the Euro -0.62% as well. Follow up the updates here.
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FEB 16 2017: Donald Trump backfires on Netherlands far right wing party. Expect same for Marine Le Pen.
Quote: With his uncompromising language about immigration and Islam, Geert Wilders has been stirring up Dutch politics for several years now. But since the election campaign in the Netherlands formally began Wednesday, polls have shown that his popularity is on shaky ground. His far-right Freedom party (PVV) still holds an advantage over the ruling Conservative (VDD) party, but one that is narrowing. Wendy Jansma, a 29 year-old healthcare student, was considering voting for Wilders. She likes that he has “the guts” to talk about problems, and is willing to put Dutch people ahead of newcomers. But the behaviour of newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump has caused her to reconsider. “I am afraid when I look at Trump – I don’t want to have someone like that in power here. That would be taking a big risk,” she told Vice News. Quote: news.vice.com/story/dutch-politician-geert-wilders-kicks-off-election-campaign-with-anti-immigrant-message
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FEB 17 2017: Europes Voters are getting more scared about Trump
Todays topic is yesterdays Trumps meeting with "the press". People getting scared about Donald Trump. Latest poll in Germany is showing, that 78% of all Germans now scared (!) about Trump. Same time far right parties losing massively voters in Europe. The latest opionion poll in the netherlands is showing a dramatic loss of Voters for Wilders. If ever this numbers migh be confirmed in the next days than Wilders lost 40% (!) of all voters sind Trumps inauguration. de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parlamentswahl_in_den_Niederlanden_2017
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FEB 18 2017: Trump approval rating sets a new low with 38
Expect Donald Trump is losing more and more supporters. Same time the low approval rates explaining why Trumps tone since few days getting more and more aggressive. Expect another u-turn if Trump recognize that he will fail if he do not change this way of communication. Expect that one of his aids (Conway/Spicer/Bannon) gets "fired" next. This will cause another spike to the upside for stockmarkets. Source: gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
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FEB 18 2017 "The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections"
Quote: One French hedge fund manager said he was relaxed about the election outcome, with Ms Le Pen considered a long shot in scenarios that require an unexpected turn of events, such as support for Mr Macron crumbling. “The only way for the Front National to gain power is to secure more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round,” said Renaud Champion, head of credit at La Française GIS. “The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections.” Source: ft.com/content/0f1fdff6-f469-11e6-95ee-f14e55513608
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FEB 18 2017: Donald Trumps backfire on Europen far right parties
Opinion Polls Netherlands (Election is on March 15. 2017)
Quote: The seat projections in the graphs below are continuous from September 2012 (the last general election) up to the current date. Each colored line specifies a political party; numbers on the y-axis represent numbers of seats.
FEB 18 2017: Washington PR offensive fails to quell Europe's anxiety over Trump
Quote: Commodities16 minutes ago (Feb 18, 2017 04:31PM ET)
By Noah Barkin
MUNICH (Reuters) - One month into the unusual presidency of Donald Trump, his most senior cabinet members were deployed to Brussels, Bonn and Munich this week to reassure nervous Europeans that everything would be okay. ... .... "Pence and Mattis and Tillerson can come here and talk about the importance of the transatlantic relationship and NATO - and that is all good," said Elmar Brok, head of the foreign affairs committee of the European Parliament and a party ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "But we don't know what's coming on Twitter tomorrow morning," he said, referring to Trump's penchant for spilling out policy statements via social media. Source: investing.com/news/commodities-news/washington-pr-offensive-fails-to-quell-europe's-anxiety-over-trump-460798
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FEB 18 2017: Maybe this is the reason why Donald Trump rallies today in Florida
Drama mounts on Capitol Hill over Trump and Russia ties, 2016 election interference
Here’s how Congress is handling Russia investigations Leigh Ann Caldwell 2 Hours Ago
Drama is building on Capitol Hill over current and potential investigations into Russia's alleged interference in last year's election and the pre-inauguration contacts between President Donald Trump's national security adviser and Russia's ambassador. At the end of a week's worth of new revelations and a resignation, FBI Director James Comey held a closed-door meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee Friday. Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/18/heres-how-congress-is-handling-russia-investigations.html
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JAN 19 2017: Trump backfires European far right wing parties: Germany´s AfD lost 50% of all likely voters within 4 month only.
Latest poll from today is showing Germany´s anti EU and anti Muslim Party AfD droped to 9% of likely voters in the September election. This is a huge loss of 50% of all likely voters. One day before Trumps inauguration opinon polls showing the AfD to win at least 16-18%.
FEB 20 2017 Bond Traders Sentiment highly bearish as well.
Bond Traders Are Placing Euro-Breakup Bets Again
Quote: by Stephen Spratt Hidden under the surface of European bond markets, traders are placing bets that will pay out if the risks in the euro zone severely escalate. Markets across the continent have started to price in the increased potential for anti-euro candidates to win elections in France and Italy. Recent positioning in German and Italian bonds are hedges against a blow-up in the risk of a breakup in the common currency, said traders in London and New York, who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Six-month German securities have rallied more than benchmark tenors this month and open interest in two-year note futures has surged, suggesting investors are building up long positions in assets that are the closest to cash in terms of safety. The yield spread between Italian low- and high-coupon bonds has widened as traders bet against the latter, which would fall much more if the country’s creditworthiness is called into question. Source: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-20/euro-zone-political-risks-lead-to-subtle-hedges-in-bond-markets
FEB 21 2017 Border tax hits political reality, and only Trump can save it
John Harwood | @johnjharwood 6 Mins Ago Quote: So, Sen. David Perdue of Georgia, a former retail executive, has pronounced border adjustment an economic threat. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, home base of Wal-Mart, has vowed to fight it. John Cornyn of Texas, who worries about the effect on oil prices and serves as the Senate's second-ranking Republican, last week pronounced border adjustment "on life support." Those three Republicans alone — if they hold firm — could be enough to sink the idea in a Senate where Republicans control just 52 seats. Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/21/border-tax-hits-political-reality-and-only-trump-can-save-it.html
1. Markets: Quote: Euro plummets to 6 week lows as Le Pen's presidential bid looms: SocGen Investors appear to be increasingly nervous ahead of the scheduled elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany after failing to foresee the outcomes of the U.K.'s Brexit vote and U.S. President Donald Trump's victory. "So much uncertainty with 9 weeks to go until the first round of the (French) election means we will probably see nervousness persist, and undermine the Euro across the board," Societe Generale analysts concluded. Soure: cnbc.com/2017/02/22/euro-plummets-to-6-week-lows-as-le-pens-presidential-bid-looms-socgen.html
Netherlands far right wing and anti EU, anti EURO and anti Islam Party PVV (Wlders) is loosing very fast ground now week by week and lost at least 25 - 40% of all likely voters. The PVV is now expected to win 16% of all votersonly to become probaly second stronges party only. This is the lowest numbers in more than two years. The Nederlands elections is held on March 15 2017. n-tv.de/politik/Wilders-rauscht-ins-Umfragetief-article19714264.html
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FEB 22 2017: Only one side can be right.
1. Markets: Quote: Euro plummets to 6 week lows as Le Pen's presidential bid looms: SocGen Investors appear to be increasingly nervous ahead of the scheduled elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany after failing to foresee the outcomes of the U.K.'s Brexit vote and U.S. President Donald Trump's victory. "So much uncertainty with 9 weeks to go until the first round of the (French) election means we will probably see nervousness persist, and undermine the Euro across the board," Societe Generale analysts concluded. Soure: cnbc.com/2017/02/22/euro-plummets-to-6-week-lows-as-le-pens-presidential-bid-looms-socgen.html
Netherlands far right wing and anti EU, anti EURO and anti Islam Party PVV (Wlders) is loosing very fast ground now week by week and lost at least 25 - 40% of all likely voters. The PVV is now expected to win 16% of all votersonly to become probaly second stronges party only. This is the lowest numbers in more than two years. The Nederlands elections is held on March 15 2017. n-tv.de/politik/Wilders-rauscht-ins-Umfragetief-article19714264.html
Quote: Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) and Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) are in a dead heat in the lead-up to the March 15 Dutch election, according to a poll published Wednesday. Analyst Tom Louwerse told local media that while Rutte’s party has been relatively stable over the course of the past few weeks, Wilders’ has been on a slight downward trajectory, sliding from an expected 35 seats in polls last month. Both Wilders and Rutte are likely to fall short of an absolute majority in parliament. Rutte has ruled out cooperating with the far right to maintain power.
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FEB 23 2017: Prospect of a centrist alliance snaps 3-day losing streak for sovereign debt
Quote: Selling pressure on French bonds ebbed on Thursday, pushing the yield on the 10-year bond back below 1 per cent, as the prospect of a centrist alliance in the country’s presidential election eased anxiety that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will win.
FEB 23 Februar: The Washington Post counted 133 false or misleading claims in the first 35 days of Trump´s Presidency. US-Traders might underestimate that European Voters have a diffrent view on Trumps lies. Some of Trumps lies are about European Countries and had been answered allready on Trump twitter account by European Citizens. Trumps repeated lies backfires European far right parties. washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-claims/
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FEB 24 2017: Todays Opinion polls for the first round of voting
FEB 25 2017: Tweets like todays from Donald Trump backfires more to European far right parties. Lets watch the upcomming polls in the next days and weeks closely. twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/835325771858251776
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FEB 25 2017: Paris mayor fires back at Donald Trump
Quote: Trump cited a ‘substantial’ friend Jim who no longer visits the City of Love. By Chris Spillane 2/25/17, 10:30 AM CET Updated 2/26/17, 1:31 PM CET .... Trump said Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland on Friday that his friend “Jim” no longer goes to Paris despite being a regular visitor in the past. .... .... She added that bookings from U.S. tourists for the first half of 2017 have risen 30 percent compared with the previous year. And French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault tweeted that “3.5 million American tourists visited France in 2016, they’ll always be welcome.” ...
Comment: FEB 27 2017: France Government Bonds dropping today another 3,5 % for the 4 day in a row.
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FEB 28 2017: France's Marine Le Pen may be losing election momentum — and investors like it
Qute: Marine Le Pen's chances of becoming France's next president may be slipping and investors are breathing a sigh of relief. A poll released Tuesday by French firm Ifop showed the far-right candidate's lead over centrist Emmanuel Macron declining to just 1.5 percentage points. Another poll released by Opinionway showed Macron defeating Le Pen in the May 7 runoff election. France holds two rounds of voting in presidential contests. French bond prices rose after the polls, bringing their yields closer in line with more steady German yields. The French 10-year note yield declined to 0.888 percent, narrowing its spread with the 10-year German sovereign yield to around 0.68 percentage point. Bond yields move inversely to bond prices. French 10-year yield in 2016 fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/charts/2017/02/1488299610_Untitled.png Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/28/marine-le-pen-losing-momentum-in-france.html
MAR 6 2017 Investor fears over Europe could be overdone, but watch out for the US: Experts
Quote: Investors are concerned about the continued rise of populism could upset the current political and economic system, but Andrew Parry, head of equities at Hermes Investment Management, expects Europe to react against populism this year. "There's the political risk that appears to be hanging over Europe. I think somewhat ironically, the more that people think that Trump is the embodiment through populism of the new economic model, the more you actually get a reaction against populism in Europe," he told CNBC's Street Signs. Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/06/europe-politics-investment-investing-populism-fear-us.html
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MAR 07 2017: The Dutch election is a dead heat, and the stakes for the EU could be huge
Do not underestimate the markets view about stockmarkets action
Quote: he French presidential election is grabbing all the headlines in Europe, but another contest may serve as an indicator for France's election — and Europe's future.
The Netherlands is scheduled to hold a general election on March 15, and right now the race is a dead heat between Geert Wilders — leader of the populist Party of Freedom (PVV) — and incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who leads the more moderate People's Party for Freedom (VVD). Markets will be watching the Dutch contest not just to get a sense of who may win the French election, but to gauge the likelihood of the European Union's disintegration. "That could be the canary in the coal mine," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities, referring to the Dutch election. "This could be a preview of what could happen in the French election." Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/07/dutch-election-and-geert-wilder-future-of-european-union.html
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MAR 07 2017: Dutch populist Wilders loses ground in the polls as 'Trump effect' comes into play: Analyst
Quote: Dutch populist Geert Wilders' popularity seems to be diminishing among the Netherlands electorate as his chances of an outright victory appear to be hampered by U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist agenda. With just over a week to go until the Netherlands general election, the leader of the anti-immigration Party for Freedom (PVV) is now running neck and neck with Prime Minister Mark Rutte's Liberals, according to a Peil.nl poll published Sunday. "I can only speculate, but I think a negative Trump effects is at play," Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea, told CNBC in an email Tuesday. Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/07/dutch-populist-wilders-loses-ground-in-the-polls-as-trump-effect-comes-into-play-analyst.html
MAR 05 2017: New Poll is showing wilders taking the lead by one seat. Same time the 50plus party losing more ground to 5%. 50+ and PVV together in June 2016 had up to 50 seats (of 150). Now its 30. A loss of 40% if likely voters since June 2016.
PVV 25 Seats VVD 24 Seats
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The Dutch Election vs. EURUSD:
MAR 14 2017: Wilders lost almost 10 Seats after yesterdays. TV Debate.
VVD: 27 GL: 20 D66: 20 CDA: 19 Wilders anti muslim and anti EU Party: 16 seats (had 37 in June 2016 opinion polls).
Wilders PVV now back to same number of seats like in last election and 5th strongest Dutch party only. If ever this would be confirmed by the elections tomorrow this would mean a huge miss for Wilders an also a huge miss for all U.S. Investors betting on rising populism in Europe.
MAR 22 2017: Dollar slump continues amid Trump jitters
Quote: Investing.com - The dollar slumped against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday, as investors questioned the progress of Trump’s economic policies while weaker than expected existing home sales weighed on sentiment. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, dipped 0.12% to 99.43 by 13:10 EDT. The dollar dived to session lows, as investors focused on the lack of progress concerning the Trump administration’s pro-growth policies ahead of a key House vote on Thursday while weaker than expected existing home sales added to downside momentum. Source: investing.com/news/commodities-news/dollar-slump-continues-amid-trump-jitters-468082
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March 23 201, French Election: After first TV-Debate Macron is taking the lead for the first round of election
MAR 24 2017: Trump's approval rating craters in poll — and his base is the culprit
Quote: President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% — a new low, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday. The poll found the president to be losing crucial support among Republicans, men, and white voters. The survey of 1,056 voters from across the US found that Trump's approval among Republican voters dropped to 81%, from 91% of those surveyed in a similar Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago. His disapproval rating among that group jumped to 14% from 5%. The poll showed those in Trump's most supportive demographics — male and white voters — to be increasingly unhappy with his performance. Forty-three percent of men approved of Trump — down from 49% in the most recent poll, while 44% of white voters approved, also down from 49%. "Most alarming for President Donald Trump, the demographic underpinnings of his support, Republicans, white voters, especially men and those without a college degree, are starting to have doubts," the assistant director of the poll, Tim Malloy, said in a statement. Source: uk.businessinsider.com/trumps-approval-rating-craters-in-poll-and-his-base-is-the-culprit-2017-3?r=US&IR=T
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APR 01 2017: For Stockmarket Traders the Brexit is linked with "the rise of populism" in Europe. In most traders logic the Brexit should had caused a victory of Dutch far right party PVV (Gert Wilders) and should cause a victory of Marine LePen. The overall logic behind this story was to short European stockmarkets. This the rise of populism die not happened because voters in Europe turning away from populism, wich finally caused without any doubt the Brexit.
Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:
APR 04 2017: "Risk free trades against Europe on the rise of populism" vs. facts and figures
Quote: In recent polls, AfD (Germany´s far right party) has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold Head of AfD, Frauke Petry (41), who has been under pressure within her Party, has now struck back – by indirectly threatening to step down In recent polls, AfD has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold (currently seven percent, according to Allensbach). Without Petry, this might become even more of a tight squeeze. In the end, the party might fail to make it into parliament. Source: bild.de/politik/inland/frauke-petry/that-was-a-serious-challenge-51129132.bild.html
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APR 04 2017: Michael Hasenstab bets against euro in populist hedge
Quote: Michael Hasenstab is betting against the euro, a striking position for an investment manager celebrated in Europe for throwing the weight of Franklin Templeton’s flagship bond fund behind Ireland and Hungary as they emerged from the debt crisis. Speaking to the Financial Times, his comments highlight the concerns of many international investors, amplified following a campaign pledge from Marine Le Pen, presidential candidate of the far right in France’s upcoming presidential election, to withdraw the country from Europe’s single currency. Quote: ft.com/content/bba626fa-0994-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43
Markets now start to focus on the UK election. For the DAX anything else than the scheduled "hard BREXIT" matters and should gain positiv momentum medium term.
Investing.com - Europe is likely to set the tone for global financial markets this week, with the European Central Bank policy meeting and British general election on investors' minds. Meanwhile, in the U.S., market players will pay close attention to former FBI director James Comey's testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, in a hearing that could add to difficulties facing President Donald Trump. Source: investing.com/news/economy-news/the-week-ahead%3A-5-things-to-watch-on-the-economic-calendar-491610
Here's why the gusher of billions into European stocks should continue Political risks in Europe still exist, but analysts point to recent figures that suggest the euro zone economy is growing at its fastest rate in years, much faster than the U.S. economy. European focused, U.S.-based domiciled funds alone saw net inflows of $4.2 billion in May, bringing total net flows year-to-date to $9.2 billion. So far this year investors moved $13.7 billion to European funds. cnbc.com/2017/05/30/heres-why-the-gusher-of-billions-into-european-stocks-should-continue.html
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