EURUSD Bullish Probability as Fed and Risk Measures Balance Out
Updated
Technicals:
The 1.49 area was well respected as resistance. This level also happened to be a 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement Level for the high and low between 1.17 and 1.09 respectively. The bears may move in to take further control of the pair.
The greenback is still in a relative uptrend as major lows haven't been broken. My personal strategy is therefore to look for Long positions at the 1.13 psychological price handle, that confluences with the 50.0 % Fibonacci Retracement Level of the most recent bull wave from the 1.110 low to the 1.149 high.
Fundamentals:
For the US dollar to gain further traction against the euro, it needs those market measures of Fed rate timing to turn around. In early-August, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October was seen as nearly 50 %; now it is only 6 %. Any indication by these market measures that a rate hike in 2015 is a real possibility - now seen as only a 30.5 % chance of happening - could prove to be a big boon for the greenback amid what should be a flurry of central bank activity this week.
On the other hand, bullish
EURUSD rallies may be capped with the ECB meeting this week.
The 1.49 area was well respected as resistance. This level also happened to be a 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement Level for the high and low between 1.17 and 1.09 respectively. The bears may move in to take further control of the pair.
The greenback is still in a relative uptrend as major lows haven't been broken. My personal strategy is therefore to look for Long positions at the 1.13 psychological price handle, that confluences with the 50.0 % Fibonacci Retracement Level of the most recent bull wave from the 1.110 low to the 1.149 high.
Fundamentals:
For the US dollar to gain further traction against the euro, it needs those market measures of Fed rate timing to turn around. In early-August, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October was seen as nearly 50 %; now it is only 6 %. Any indication by these market measures that a rate hike in 2015 is a real possibility - now seen as only a 30.5 % chance of happening - could prove to be a big boon for the greenback amid what should be a flurry of central bank activity this week.
On the other hand, bullish
EURUSD rallies may be capped with the ECB meeting this week.Comment
Long Position taken with the occurence of the Morning Star on the H4 TF.Comment
+50 Pips Gross. SL at BE.
Comment
So slow. Probably in anticipation of the ECB Meeting.
Trade closed: stop reached
Closed at BE.Draghi and team were more dovish than expected.
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