Current Market Analysis: At the moment, EURUSD is exhibiting multiple signs confirming a bearish institutional order flow.
Key Observations:
Divergence with DXY: Yesterday’s price action formed a divergence with the DXY (Dollar Index). Utilizing the Smart Money Tool (SMT), we recognize that such a divergence—where EURUSD and DXY, which usually move symmetrically, exhibit non-symmetrical movement—signals an anticipated reversal in price action. This divergence resulted in the price continuing downward after the buy stops were taken, indicating a bearish draw.
H1 Bearish Order Block: The primary point of interest is the H1 bearish order block. The presence of inefficiencies (liquidity voids and fair value gaps) below it signifies that it is a strong order block likely to be respected by the price.
Secondary Consideration: If the H1 bearish order block does not hold, the next point of interest is the H1 buy stops. If these buy stops are taken, I will look for a confirmation entry to the downside.
Trading Strategy:
Focus on Bearish Order Flow: Given the evidence of bearish institutional order flow, I am targeting the H1 bearish order block as the primary entry point for short positions.
Contingency Plan: Should the H1 bearish order block fail to hold, I will wait for the H1 buy stops to be taken before considering a confirmation entry towards the downside.
Target Levels:
Draw on Liquidity: The targets are displayed on the chart, with a specific focus on the engineered trendline liquidity. Sell stops are resting below these lows, making them a prime objective.
Conclusion: By understanding the current bearish institutional order flow and leveraging key support and resistance levels, we can effectively anticipate and execute trades on EURUSD. The divergence observed with DXY and the strong H1 bearish order block support a bearish outlook, guiding our strategy towards taking advantage of short opportunities in the market.
For a detailed explanation on how to use the Smart Money Tool (SMT), please follow this link to one of my lectures: Understanding Trend Analysis, SMT and ICT Concepts
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