The EURUSD is beginning to show signs of a reversal as momentum shifts and moves above its 10-day exponential moving average. The EURUSD has recently experienced a significant move since early February, rising to a high of 1.147, which resulted in it becoming overbought, touching its upper Bollinger band, and pushing the RSI above 70. Now, after a brief pullback, the EURUSD appears poised to make another push higher.
The EURUSD has now moved above its 10-day exponential moving average and its 20-day simple moving average. Additionally, it appears to have broken above a minor downtrend that began on 28 April. If this momentum continues, EURUSD could rise back towards resistance at the upper Bollinger band, around 1.145, and perhaps even retest the 1.157 peak seen on 21 April.
Perhaps more importantly, a short-term trend reversal is underway, with the Relative Strength Index breaking above a short-term downtrend that started on 21 April. If this trend break holds, it would indicate that the recent decline in EURUSD has likely ended, setting the stage for another move higher.
Also supporting a potential rebound and move higher is the successful bounce of EURUSD off its 38.2% retracement level, measured from the lows established on 3 February to the highs of 21 April. Combined with the factors mentioned earlier, this suggests the next move for EURUSD is likely upwards.
However, if support fails to hold and EURUSD falls below 1.105, it could decline further towards the next support at 1.075, which corresponds to the 61.8% retracement level from the 3 February lows.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
The EURUSD has now moved above its 10-day exponential moving average and its 20-day simple moving average. Additionally, it appears to have broken above a minor downtrend that began on 28 April. If this momentum continues, EURUSD could rise back towards resistance at the upper Bollinger band, around 1.145, and perhaps even retest the 1.157 peak seen on 21 April.
Perhaps more importantly, a short-term trend reversal is underway, with the Relative Strength Index breaking above a short-term downtrend that started on 21 April. If this trend break holds, it would indicate that the recent decline in EURUSD has likely ended, setting the stage for another move higher.
Also supporting a potential rebound and move higher is the successful bounce of EURUSD off its 38.2% retracement level, measured from the lows established on 3 February to the highs of 21 April. Combined with the factors mentioned earlier, this suggests the next move for EURUSD is likely upwards.
However, if support fails to hold and EURUSD falls below 1.105, it could decline further towards the next support at 1.075, which corresponds to the 61.8% retracement level from the 3 February lows.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.