ridethepig | EURUSD Macro Update [Dissecting Waves]
Updated
The starting position has been difficult to reach for the 3rd impulsive wave after coronavirus risk-off flows hijacked the move. But what now? Either a breakdown to close the gap from French elections in 2017 or an imminent reversal to kickstart the leg; of course if only the positional obligation was not so appealing at these levels for longs because we are obliged to play, instead of with the current direction, some positionally relevant move to strengthen the advance.
On the macro side, refreshing to see the lows holding but for how long? We are just simply picking key levels where the price can kick up out of. You don't necessarily need to agree with the wave counts but you see the value levels for those wanting to work the bid. These are not the levels you want to be selling in my books, I will not chase this lower unless we get a daily close below the 5th wave which will naturally call for reassessment of the count.
Those tracking the dissection of the technicals will know by now that we are sitting in key support levels from our technical diagram:
Regular readers and those with a background in waves will know that the trend resumption towards the topside is only a matter of time. Buyers will repeat the manoeuvre and create a longer term threat - that is the intention!
Its only once you have mapped this out and you have an understanding of the big picture in play that you can then come down smaller and start trying to work the intraday legs. I could get even more to this if the US Equities come under pressure and correct which will in turn force FED to tilt further towards the dovish side... In any case we will see how this one goes, I am looking to get long but will need a helping hand from a fresh price driver to assist in flipping the board.
Risks to the thesis come from an emergency -10bps hike from the ECB, it does not look in play as long as the lows are holding..clearly markets are testing their patience, a breach of the lows will force Lagarde to capitulate with a cut. There wont be anymore QE because that's too difficult to backtrack. Cutting rates would be the more effective front load....wary of this walking forward.
Don't forget to keep the likes, charts, questions and comments coming! Thanks guys...
On the macro side, refreshing to see the lows holding but for how long? We are just simply picking key levels where the price can kick up out of. You don't necessarily need to agree with the wave counts but you see the value levels for those wanting to work the bid. These are not the levels you want to be selling in my books, I will not chase this lower unless we get a daily close below the 5th wave which will naturally call for reassessment of the count.
Those tracking the dissection of the technicals will know by now that we are sitting in key support levels from our technical diagram:
Regular readers and those with a background in waves will know that the trend resumption towards the topside is only a matter of time. Buyers will repeat the manoeuvre and create a longer term threat - that is the intention!
Its only once you have mapped this out and you have an understanding of the big picture in play that you can then come down smaller and start trying to work the intraday legs. I could get even more to this if the US Equities come under pressure and correct which will in turn force FED to tilt further towards the dovish side... In any case we will see how this one goes, I am looking to get long but will need a helping hand from a fresh price driver to assist in flipping the board.
Risks to the thesis come from an emergency -10bps hike from the ECB, it does not look in play as long as the lows are holding..clearly markets are testing their patience, a breach of the lows will force Lagarde to capitulate with a cut. There wont be anymore QE because that's too difficult to backtrack. Cutting rates would be the more effective front load....wary of this walking forward.
Don't forget to keep the likes, charts, questions and comments coming! Thanks guys...
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