EURUSD has bearish conditions, important confluence
Updated
At the latest policy meeting, the ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged but left no doubt about its intention to move to more easing. The guidance prompted traders to increase bets that the organization led by Christine Lagarde will launch an easing campaign at the next monetary policy meeting in June.
The prospect of the ECB being ahead of the Fed on monetary easing could be detrimental to EUR/USD in the short term. Just a few weeks ago, there were signs that the FOMC could also act in June, but a series of hotter-than-expected US inflation measures and labor market data have skewed this scenario. , causing a repricing of interest rate expectations and benefiting the US Dollar.
On the daily chart,
EURUSD there are technical conditions that fully support the possibility of a bearish price with the main trend formed from price channel (a) and maintaining price activity below the EMA21 level.
While EUR/USD's decline may temporarily be limited by the support confluence of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and the lower edge of the price channel (a) along with the 1.06367 horizontal support, it still has plenty of room to fall. Technical price. A new bearish cycle could be opened once the lower edge of price channel (a) is broken below with the target level then around 1.05232 in the short term.
Upward corrections, as long as they do not break the technical points 1.06854 – 1.07234, EUR/USD still has a short-term decline prospect, and these are also considered targets for short-term correction recovery.
Looking ahead, EUR/USD still has the main technical trend to the downside and notable technical levels will be listed as follows.
Support: 1.06423 – 1.05232
Resistance: 1.06954 – 1.07234
The prospect of the ECB being ahead of the Fed on monetary easing could be detrimental to EUR/USD in the short term. Just a few weeks ago, there were signs that the FOMC could also act in June, but a series of hotter-than-expected US inflation measures and labor market data have skewed this scenario. , causing a repricing of interest rate expectations and benefiting the US Dollar.
On the daily chart,
EURUSD there are technical conditions that fully support the possibility of a bearish price with the main trend formed from price channel (a) and maintaining price activity below the EMA21 level.While EUR/USD's decline may temporarily be limited by the support confluence of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and the lower edge of the price channel (a) along with the 1.06367 horizontal support, it still has plenty of room to fall. Technical price. A new bearish cycle could be opened once the lower edge of price channel (a) is broken below with the target level then around 1.05232 in the short term.
Upward corrections, as long as they do not break the technical points 1.06854 – 1.07234, EUR/USD still has a short-term decline prospect, and these are also considered targets for short-term correction recovery.
Looking ahead, EUR/USD still has the main technical trend to the downside and notable technical levels will be listed as follows.
Support: 1.06423 – 1.05232
Resistance: 1.06954 – 1.07234
Note
The driving force for recovery was the selling pressure on the USD when the DXY index dropped to 105.78. However, the upside prospects for EURUSD may be quite limited as the market is expecting that the ECB will cut interest rates in June, putting pressure on the Euro.Note
How will EUR/USD fluctuate after breaking the important resistance zone 1.07?On the daily chart, EURUSD has broken through the key resistance level at 1.07 and is currently testing a failure at the intersection of the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 21 moving average. This is an area where sellers are intervening to Prepare to push prices down.
Note
EUR/USD extended its bullish streak into the fourth trading session, but is still trading within Friday's range so can be considered sideways for the time being. The short-term outlook for this pair remains positive as it is trading above the 20 EMA at 1.0730.Note
EURUSD broke through and is still holding above the important 200 EMA resistance mark at 1.0800 after the US April PPI data was released.The pair is still reacting to the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle pattern formed on the daily chart. This border is drawn from the high on December 28 around 1.1140, whereas the lower border comes from the low on October 3 at 1.0448.
Note
On the daily time frame, EURUSD reversed below the 1.0880 resistance, coinciding with the upper border of the descending channel. If the price maintains its bearish momentum with a bearish break of the 1.0780 support, the price could fall further towards the 1.0650 support. Conversely, if the price breaks out of the descending channel and the 1.0880 resistance to the upside (bullish breakout), it could push the next potential resistance level at 1.1000 further. The RSI indicator is fluctuating near the overbought zone, suggesting that the potential for further price increases is limited.
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