We are talking here about a swing high which has to be broken. What can be doubtful here, you may ask... Of course we must direct the attacks towards the highs, but how does one do that if for some reason the highs cannot be shaken? Would it not be opportunistic to sweep the highs and entice profit taking before recycling longs. This is effectively what happened last week in EUR:
Here the bear is condemned to die for the common good, as a diversionary sacrifice. The only question markets are asking is a matter of "when" rather than "if" ... Since the Weekly chart we dissected in September, it would be helpful to start by reviewing the advance:
Sellers defence does not look very promising; after a possible escalation with US-Iran tensions or with FED USD devaluation via flooding supply side. So buyers play the breakout... exchanging the base for a new trend in 2020-2021:
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