EURUSD pair is currently testing a critical resistance zone around 1.1495–1.1500, with bearish rejection beginning to form on the 4H timeframe. The technical setup suggests a potential lower high forming within the context of a broader downtrend, supported by a confluence of horizontal resistance and bearish risk catalysts.
🔍 Technical Overview:
Resistance Zone: 1.1495–1.1575 (multi-timeframe key levels)
Support Levels to Watch: 1.1234 (range base) and 1.1086 (swing low)
Price Action: After a sustained rally, price is showing exhaustion near previous highs, and a rejection pattern is emerging, suggesting selling interest.
Risk Management: Stop placed above 1.1575 high, with downside targets near 1.1234 and extended toward 1.1086.
🧠 Fundamental Backdrop:
ECB Policy Outlook: Lagarde recently warned that a stronger euro and higher tariffs may hurt EU exports. This dovish tone could weigh on EUR sentiment in the medium term.
US Dollar Strengthening: The latest US labor market data (ADP, JOLTS) beat expectations, showing continued resilience in employment and wage growth. This supports the Fed's data-dependent approach, favoring a stronger USD.
Macro Tensions: Global trade concerns (Trump’s tariffs, weak China demand, Germany’s slowing job market) are adding pressure to EUR while supporting safe-haven USD flows.
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (April): Highlights persistent inflation fears and deteriorating economic confidence.
⏳ Scenario Outlook:
✅ Bearish Bias Preferred below 1.1500 with confirmation of rejection.
🎯 Target Zone 1: 1.1234 – Strong structure & demand zone.
🎯 Target Zone 2 (Extended): 1.1086 – Major low from mid-May.
❌ Invalidation: A breakout and close above 1.1575 would neutralize the bearish outlook and open up higher targets toward 1.17.
Conclusion: The EURUSD pair presents a compelling short opportunity, with both technical resistance and macro pressure aligning for a retracement or reversal. Short setups are favored unless bulls reclaim and hold above the 1.1575 handle.
🔍 Technical Overview:
Resistance Zone: 1.1495–1.1575 (multi-timeframe key levels)
Support Levels to Watch: 1.1234 (range base) and 1.1086 (swing low)
Price Action: After a sustained rally, price is showing exhaustion near previous highs, and a rejection pattern is emerging, suggesting selling interest.
Risk Management: Stop placed above 1.1575 high, with downside targets near 1.1234 and extended toward 1.1086.
🧠 Fundamental Backdrop:
ECB Policy Outlook: Lagarde recently warned that a stronger euro and higher tariffs may hurt EU exports. This dovish tone could weigh on EUR sentiment in the medium term.
US Dollar Strengthening: The latest US labor market data (ADP, JOLTS) beat expectations, showing continued resilience in employment and wage growth. This supports the Fed's data-dependent approach, favoring a stronger USD.
Macro Tensions: Global trade concerns (Trump’s tariffs, weak China demand, Germany’s slowing job market) are adding pressure to EUR while supporting safe-haven USD flows.
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (April): Highlights persistent inflation fears and deteriorating economic confidence.
⏳ Scenario Outlook:
✅ Bearish Bias Preferred below 1.1500 with confirmation of rejection.
🎯 Target Zone 1: 1.1234 – Strong structure & demand zone.
🎯 Target Zone 2 (Extended): 1.1086 – Major low from mid-May.
❌ Invalidation: A breakout and close above 1.1575 would neutralize the bearish outlook and open up higher targets toward 1.17.
Conclusion: The EURUSD pair presents a compelling short opportunity, with both technical resistance and macro pressure aligning for a retracement or reversal. Short setups are favored unless bulls reclaim and hold above the 1.1575 handle.
Note
Note
Note
ECB Policy Divergence:The ECB cut interest rates in June, but ECB President Lagarde signaled a pause moving forward.
Inflation is still easing in the Eurozone, consumer sentiment and business confidence remain weak, and producer prices are deflationary (-2.2% YoY per Eurostat).
ECB's Lagarde also warned that higher tariffs and a stronger euro would hinder exports, signaling policy restraint ahead.
Stronger U.S. Labor Market and Sticky Inflation:
U.S. data has shown resilient labor market strength (NFP preview positive, ADP +37K despite soft patches).
April JOLTS and unit labor costs signal underlying wage pressure, implying the Fed cannot cut prematurely.
Fed speakers (e.g., Governor Kugler) emphasize caution as tariff-driven inflation risks rise.
U.S. Dollar Demand Drivers:
Geopolitical uncertainty (Trump tariffs, China tension, weak global PMIs) boost safe-haven USD.
U.S. 10Y yields firm as September cut pricing becomes more balanced (not aggressive).
Gold falling confirms strengthening USD and cooling inflation expectations.
Note
📌 Key Events to WatchECB Press Conference June 6 Watch for tone confirmation or pushback on future rate cuts
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (June 7) Strong jobs = hawkish Fed = USD strength
U.S. CPI & PPI (next week) Core sticky inflation could delay Fed easing
Trump-Xi & Trade Court Fallout If tariffs return or expand, expect USD dominance to extend
Note
⚠️ Risk to the TradeU.S. Weak Data Surprise: If NFP/CPI prints weak, it could spark USD selling and squeeze EURUSD higher.
Fed Pivot Comments: Any dovish surprise (e.g., signaling September cut regardless of data) would hurt USD.
ECB Hawkish Repricing: If Lagarde hints at more hikes or disinflation halts, it could reverse euro weakness.
Note
EURUSD: Should lead the move due to rate cut vs. Fed hold divergence and recent Lagarde comments.Confirmation from GOLD: XAUUSD’s drop shows market repricing toward hawkish Fed, validating USD strength.
GBPNZD: Showing NZD strength – watch for NZD strength bleed into EURNZD and EURNZD setups (good cross to reinforce euro weakness).
Trade active
Note
ECB cut rates and signaled a pause. Lagarde acknowledged tighter financial conditions from stronger EUR and tariffs.Germany and Eurozone macro data (unemployment, manufacturing, PPI) show signs of weakening growth.
US dollar strength supported by labor market resilience and Fed’s “wait and see” stance.
📈Forex Telegram Alerts
🥇95% Accurate Signals
♻️1-2 Daily Signals
✔️Free Daily Profitable Signals
⤵️‼️Join us on Telegram‼️⤵️
📱Telegram:➡️ t.me/ultreos_forex
Get VIP - ultreosforex.com/
🥇95% Accurate Signals
♻️1-2 Daily Signals
✔️Free Daily Profitable Signals
⤵️‼️Join us on Telegram‼️⤵️
📱Telegram:➡️ t.me/ultreos_forex
Get VIP - ultreosforex.com/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈Forex Telegram Alerts
🥇95% Accurate Signals
♻️1-2 Daily Signals
✔️Free Daily Profitable Signals
⤵️‼️Join us on Telegram‼️⤵️
📱Telegram:➡️ t.me/ultreos_forex
Get VIP - ultreosforex.com/
🥇95% Accurate Signals
♻️1-2 Daily Signals
✔️Free Daily Profitable Signals
⤵️‼️Join us on Telegram‼️⤵️
📱Telegram:➡️ t.me/ultreos_forex
Get VIP - ultreosforex.com/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.