ECB decision shadowed by tariff risk

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Markets will be closely watching the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision on April 17, with expectations for a seventh consecutive rate cut.

Despite this expectation, the euro surged to a three-year high against the US dollar last week, as traders continued to pull away from US assets.

The dollar index has dropped 4% since President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements on April 2, falling below the key 100 level too.

At this stage, market participants will be looking for any signals on how the ECB might respond to the potential spillover effects of President Trump’s tariff measures. While some guidance may emerge around already-announced policies, the risk of further unpredictability remains high.

Trump being Trump, it is perhaps unlikely we have seen the last of his volatility-inducing tariff announcements. This can weigh further on the dollar, eroding confidence in the world’s reserve currency.

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