EUR/USD Monetary Policy Decisions from the Central Banks (April 2025)
The ECB lowered its three key interest rates by 25 basis points.
Deposit Facility Rate: Reduced to 2.25%
Main Refinancing Operations Rate: Reduced to 2.40%
Marginal Lending Facility Rate: Reduced to 2.65%
These changes take effect from April 23, 2025.
Rationale:
The ECB cited a well-progressing disinflation process, with both headline and core inflation declining and expected to settle near the 2% medium-term target. Wage growth is moderating, and the euro area economy has shown resilience. However, the outlook for growth has deteriorated due to rising global trade tensions, which are increasing uncertainty and tightening financial conditions. The ECB emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and is not pre-committing to a specific rate path.
Economic Context:
Growth outlook is weakening, with ECB President Christine Lagarde warning that US tariffs could halve Eurozone growth this year from an already modest 0.9% forecast.
Inflation risks remain, especially from potential retaliatory tariffs and increased government spending.
U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.5%, continuing the pause in its rate-cut cycle that began in January 2025.
Outlook:
The Fed anticipates two rate cuts (totaling 50 basis points) later in 2025, but is cautious due to persistent inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, particularly from elevated tariffs and trade policy shifts.
Policymakers see inflation risks as tilted to the upside but have downgraded growth forecasts for 2025 (now 1.7%, down from 2.1%).
The Fed remains data-dependent, with future decisions hinging on inflation and labor market developments.
Implications for EUR/USD
The ECB’s rate cut narrows the interest rate differential with the Fed, which can support EUR/USD upside if the Fed remains on hold or cuts rates later than the ECB.
Both central banks are emphasizing a data-dependent approach, responding to evolving inflation and growth dynamics
Trade tensions and tariff policies are a major source of uncertainty for both economies and could influence further monetary policy actions.
Summary Table
ECB Cut by 25 bps (Apr 2025) Deposit: 2.25% Disinflation on track, growth risks from trade tensions, data-dependent
Fed Held steady (Mar 2025) Fed Funds: 4.25%–4.5% Inflation risks, slower growth, 2 cuts expected in 2025, data-dependent
In summary:
The ECB has just cut rates to support growth as inflation moderates, while the Fed is holding steady but signaling possible cuts later in 2025. Both central banks are highly data-dependent, with trade tensions and inflation risks shaping their outlooks. This evolving policy divergence is a key driver for EUR/USD in the months ahead
The ECB lowered its three key interest rates by 25 basis points.
Deposit Facility Rate: Reduced to 2.25%
Main Refinancing Operations Rate: Reduced to 2.40%
Marginal Lending Facility Rate: Reduced to 2.65%
These changes take effect from April 23, 2025.
Rationale:
The ECB cited a well-progressing disinflation process, with both headline and core inflation declining and expected to settle near the 2% medium-term target. Wage growth is moderating, and the euro area economy has shown resilience. However, the outlook for growth has deteriorated due to rising global trade tensions, which are increasing uncertainty and tightening financial conditions. The ECB emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and is not pre-committing to a specific rate path.
Economic Context:
Growth outlook is weakening, with ECB President Christine Lagarde warning that US tariffs could halve Eurozone growth this year from an already modest 0.9% forecast.
Inflation risks remain, especially from potential retaliatory tariffs and increased government spending.
U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.5%, continuing the pause in its rate-cut cycle that began in January 2025.
Outlook:
The Fed anticipates two rate cuts (totaling 50 basis points) later in 2025, but is cautious due to persistent inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, particularly from elevated tariffs and trade policy shifts.
Policymakers see inflation risks as tilted to the upside but have downgraded growth forecasts for 2025 (now 1.7%, down from 2.1%).
The Fed remains data-dependent, with future decisions hinging on inflation and labor market developments.
Implications for EUR/USD
The ECB’s rate cut narrows the interest rate differential with the Fed, which can support EUR/USD upside if the Fed remains on hold or cuts rates later than the ECB.
Both central banks are emphasizing a data-dependent approach, responding to evolving inflation and growth dynamics
Trade tensions and tariff policies are a major source of uncertainty for both economies and could influence further monetary policy actions.
Summary Table
ECB Cut by 25 bps (Apr 2025) Deposit: 2.25% Disinflation on track, growth risks from trade tensions, data-dependent
Fed Held steady (Mar 2025) Fed Funds: 4.25%–4.5% Inflation risks, slower growth, 2 cuts expected in 2025, data-dependent
In summary:
The ECB has just cut rates to support growth as inflation moderates, while the Fed is holding steady but signaling possible cuts later in 2025. Both central banks are highly data-dependent, with trade tensions and inflation risks shaping their outlooks. This evolving policy divergence is a key driver for EUR/USD in the months ahead
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.