📊 Trade Plan: EUR/USD – August 2025
🧠 Summary:
EUR/USD has recently broken a strong ascending channel, confirmed a double top, and dropped into a sell zone. Fundamentals, sentiment, and projection data align for further downside potential targeting the 1.11948 area.
1. Technical Analysis
Pattern: Double Top at ~1.18 with a confirmed neckline break.
Channel: Uptrend channel broken to the downside.
Sell Zone: Between 1.1587–1.1615 (marked on chart).
TP Target: 1.11948 support (next major demand zone).
Indicators:
Price is below pivot level and in bearish structure.
Strong rejection from R1 and monthly pivot.
🔔 Technical Bias: Bearish
2. COT (Commitment of Traders) Sentiment
EUR:
66.48% long, but slightly declined (-0.43%).
USD:
56.48% short, which increased (bullish for USD).
This shows institutions are still net long EUR, but that conviction is weakening. Meanwhile, bearish positions on USD are reducing, signaling a shift in favor of USD strength.
🔔 COT Bias: Shifting in favor of USD (bearish for EUR/USD)
3. Retail Sentiment
Retail:
60% are long EUR/USD, 40% short.
Retail traders are often on the wrong side of the market, so this contrarian signal supports a short bias.
🔔 Retail Bias: Bearish
4. Labor Market Data (NFP)
Actual: 73k vs Forecast: 110k → -37k miss
This is bad for the USD, but the market has already priced in weakness (seen in past days’ movement).
Short-term reaction could be bullish EUR, but broader trend still supports downside.
🔔 NFP Bias: Mixed (short-term bounce possible, but not trend-changing)
5. Trend Projection
All trend projections suggest:
August 3–7: EUR/USD heads lower towards 1.1–1.12, with strongest bearish scenarios reaching 1.1 by Aug 7.
Only the most optimistic scenario keeps it around 1.2, which is now technically invalidated after the neckline break.
🔔 Projection Bias: Bearish
✅ Trade Setup
Primary Trade (Swing Short)
Entry: 1.1587–1.1615 (sell zone)
Stop Loss: 1.1808 (above double top)
Take Profit: 1.1195
Risk:Reward Ratio: ~1:2
Alternative Setup (if missed entry):
Re-entry on pullback: Look for bearish rejection on retest of 1.1580–1.1600 zone.
Confirmation: Bearish engulfing candle or pivot level rejection.
⚠️ Risk Factors:
Unexpected USD weakness due to further poor economic data.
Possible short-term retracement due to oversold conditions post-NFP.
Intervention from ECB or Fed comments.
📌 Final Bias:
Short EUR/USD from resistance zones targeting 1.1195, based on a confluence of bearish technicals, sentiment, and projections.
🧠 Summary:
EUR/USD has recently broken a strong ascending channel, confirmed a double top, and dropped into a sell zone. Fundamentals, sentiment, and projection data align for further downside potential targeting the 1.11948 area.
1. Technical Analysis
Pattern: Double Top at ~1.18 with a confirmed neckline break.
Channel: Uptrend channel broken to the downside.
Sell Zone: Between 1.1587–1.1615 (marked on chart).
TP Target: 1.11948 support (next major demand zone).
Indicators:
Price is below pivot level and in bearish structure.
Strong rejection from R1 and monthly pivot.
🔔 Technical Bias: Bearish
2. COT (Commitment of Traders) Sentiment
EUR:
66.48% long, but slightly declined (-0.43%).
USD:
56.48% short, which increased (bullish for USD).
This shows institutions are still net long EUR, but that conviction is weakening. Meanwhile, bearish positions on USD are reducing, signaling a shift in favor of USD strength.
🔔 COT Bias: Shifting in favor of USD (bearish for EUR/USD)
3. Retail Sentiment
Retail:
60% are long EUR/USD, 40% short.
Retail traders are often on the wrong side of the market, so this contrarian signal supports a short bias.
🔔 Retail Bias: Bearish
4. Labor Market Data (NFP)
Actual: 73k vs Forecast: 110k → -37k miss
This is bad for the USD, but the market has already priced in weakness (seen in past days’ movement).
Short-term reaction could be bullish EUR, but broader trend still supports downside.
🔔 NFP Bias: Mixed (short-term bounce possible, but not trend-changing)
5. Trend Projection
All trend projections suggest:
August 3–7: EUR/USD heads lower towards 1.1–1.12, with strongest bearish scenarios reaching 1.1 by Aug 7.
Only the most optimistic scenario keeps it around 1.2, which is now technically invalidated after the neckline break.
🔔 Projection Bias: Bearish
✅ Trade Setup
Primary Trade (Swing Short)
Entry: 1.1587–1.1615 (sell zone)
Stop Loss: 1.1808 (above double top)
Take Profit: 1.1195
Risk:Reward Ratio: ~1:2
Alternative Setup (if missed entry):
Re-entry on pullback: Look for bearish rejection on retest of 1.1580–1.1600 zone.
Confirmation: Bearish engulfing candle or pivot level rejection.
⚠️ Risk Factors:
Unexpected USD weakness due to further poor economic data.
Possible short-term retracement due to oversold conditions post-NFP.
Intervention from ECB or Fed comments.
📌 Final Bias:
Short EUR/USD from resistance zones targeting 1.1195, based on a confluence of bearish technicals, sentiment, and projections.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.