Short

EUR/USD - (massive!) SHORT

Updated

This is the point where this pair becomes a monetary appliance - i.e., a cash machine -, much like a George Foreman Grill; "Just set it and forget it!"
(Here, the levels are accurate enough to be tradeable.) "Just SELL it and forget it!"
It doesn't get any easier than this.

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If in doubt ...

... here is a collateral indication.

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Hard Sell - SHORT

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SHORT

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Massive SHORT!!

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The Euro is "permanently" broken. (... as in it's just a matter of time before it ceases to exist.) This is/was likely the final intermediate top. Wait for a minor pull back - Yes, there is always a pull back - and then just lean into it, for good.

Here is the DXY;

Also, the is/was also the "mandatory" USD sell off before/during Debt Ceiling negotiations, after which ALWAYS comes a massive Dollar squeeze - rally!

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This may be worth a quick 50 pips?? ...

LONG

Trade closed: stop reached

Got stopped out with -4 pips;

... as that is all this try was worth. Now, wait and see ...

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One more try;

.. with 4 pip stop.

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OK, we're (still) long;

... with a scratch - even money stops. This is still extremely lopsided on the long side thus, anything here is "found money". Only ride the "free money" here!

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Although this is not a Euro pair ...

... currently it is a much better SHORT than a (temporary) EURUSD long! (... or paring back on EURUSD shorts.)

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Looking to SELL - SHORT - that Stop Hunt, something fierce!

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This is the EURUSD Weekly RSI;

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Just a reminder where we are;

If anything, this thing is rolling over.

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As a side note and not to beleaguere it;
"Putin must make a 360 degree turn." - Annalena Baerbock; Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs of Germany
This is summarily representative of the abject morons who currently run the EU.

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Chances are ...

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The DXY seems to be hinting at the same story;

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SHORT

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Right on cue!

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If not SHORT, yet ...

... now would be a good time! (Good R/R)

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Looking at the FX options action (and there is lots of it! - Even forcing me to join in since yesterday) it is fairly obvious what's taking place;
There is lots and lots of USD spot dumping going on by most, clearly having to do with the usual end-of-month rebalancing. "Everyone", except for China, that is,
who continues to fire off massive rounds of foreign reserve dumps (while at the same time, continuously pushing down on their rates. Go figure! It must be some sort of a secret "upside-down-double-inverse-curve-un-tightening", the monetary equivalent of a triple-axel? ... ;-)
E.g., there will be a lot of money to be made here, in the next few days, not necessarily in directional trades - or rather, necessarily by taking advantage of this freshly emerging volatility! The ongoing EURUSD short squeeze is bound to right itself once most of the existing sentiment overflows (i.e, the Shorts) get washed out. (Everyone is still dumping the DXY while infalting all long option premiums, going out to next month.) It is likely to be a rapid shift from the present: Sell everything USD to the "Free Euros! Anyone?! .. ", that much is certain.
And with that rather obvious 106.00 implied EURUSD's target now present for the near term, that makes it fairly strait forward how to play those swings to a maximum effect.

Trade active

SHORT

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While this isn't the EURUSD but just in case ...

LONG (then Short, then ... ;-)

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Talk about going exactly by the numbers;

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Note;
Just as the DXY came back to fill that June 12-13 gap and judging from the much increased implied FX options volatilities, across the board - which is quite over-done at this point, in my opinion -, expect increased volatilities in all USD pairs!

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Note;
Going into next month (July) expiration, 30-days out there are significant increases (almost double) in FX Yen Calls, matched with similar gains in the end-of-July Sterling 125.00 Puts, while spot cash flows point to continued Euro weakness (inline with the potential 106 target, I have pointed to, earlier).
FX options action continue to point to much increased “fears” of a (“surprise” - Really?!) BoJ tightening - as I keep advocating it being a very real possibility!! - while Euro weakness is now being accepted as a foregone conclusion.
E.g. the Yen continues to hold the potential to shock markets (in the event of which the EURJPY will bear the brunt of it!), while there is still some “disbelief” for a sub-125.00 Sterling but (“just in case”? ;-) there is continued, brisk 125 Put buying, now outstripping the short flows in the EURUSD.
E.g., If you’ve been following any of these posts then by now you should be comfortably positioned in all the right places and with room to spare! I.e.; Short all USD base pairs - EURUSD, GBPUSD, etc - and the EURJPY; (very) LONG USDCHF and company.
Most importantly, those “Yen fears” remain just that until something actually happens - normally.
HOWEVER, considering the nature of a 30-year, $3 Trillion short position, and the necessity in such an event for global markets to cover it!…That just simply is Not something that one is very likely to get a chance to waltz in, in the middle of it, to take advantage of the moves that will prompt. E.g. Be strongly advised!!

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There is a bigger (ABCD) pattern in here ...

... thus, one may get a temporary recovery here?
FLAT, for now; +95 pips

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This is how this ought to be played;

Green -> Up, Red -> Down. Not very complicated ;-)

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Green it is.

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(Since people were asking how this works ...) Made some notes in the chart;

Green -> Sell Zone, Red -> Buy Zone (pick any two colors ;-) and the slope of the two parabola's intersection already gives us the direction. When the market leaves the "Oval" - region between the two parabolas - draw the (vertical) time line and the intersection with the parabola in the direction of the move will provide the target price. Then move to the right and draw two vertical (time) lines at the two intersections with the price target line. That will provide the time interval when the price should get there. Having a Stop Hunt on either zone makes it that much easier (because now we know those are very likely Stop Hunts!).
No guarantees, of course, but it works 71% of the time.

Trade closed: target reached

... and it did get there - as expected! ;-)

There is your 71%.

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Pretty accurate.

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Correction;

I was just reminded that when the "0-Line" is angled then this works 94% of the time. - And it's true. Ma bad!

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... and this is how this ought to be played - as demonstrated in the previous example - above;

Green -> Up, Red -> Down; Red it is; etc., etc. Refer to the above example for details. (These also illustrate the fundamentally fractal nature of markets.)

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This is the corrected version of the above;

(Had to make adjustments because the numbers got shifted in TV.)

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Look to SELL that Stop Hunt with a vengeance! (... on any reversal near 109.07)

Nemo_Confidat

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