Updated

EURUSD --- Another Interesting week with geopolitics

we have a lot in the geopolitics pipeline and very light economic news

A lot of brewing geopolitics issues and some might create a lot of volatility in the markets in short term

-- ITALY budget drama , Debt and Bond yield issue plus a downgrade alraedy given by the markets
-- BREXIT drama with EU
-- US & Saudi Arabia issue due to the journalist who dissappeared from Saudi's Embassy in Turkey.
-- US & CHINA ongoing Tariffs issue
-- IRAN's sanctions from US coming into effect and therefore oil prices are bound to shoot up or rise

TRADE:

you can stay out for the time being or either go short or long depending on your analysis. This is a fluid situation and things can change very quickly.

There is better probability of a SHORT as per the situation now but that can change pretty quickly

Note

EURUSD tested the 1.1440 Area and bounced up again to 1.1480 but is extremely struggling to get any upside or sustained momentum .

It looks more likely if it fails After Conte's Speech at 1:00 pm GMT then we might head down again towards 1.1400 by the end of trading session

Note

Lots of volatility without any direction on EURUSD

Note

No reason yet for EURUSD to move higher. Be careful of the " EURO Bulls trap ". The EURO Bulls speculators are setting up a trap it seems, there is no economic news positive enough to move the EURUSD up. There is some news to move the US Dollar up but i think the 96.20 Level for DXY index is a formidable resistance area. DXY needs a clean break above this level . While EURUSD needs also a clean break below 1.1430 area. At the moment its just pure volatility and speculators in the market.

So what gives ?

Note

There is a Large Speculator fund from Eastern Europe dumping their US Dollar position for profit taking . Not seeing any broad action on it. The market is pretty silent at this time 8:00 pm to 1:00 am EST in New York time.

Note

The Fund has been dumping US Dollars for the last 30 mins

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Expect a "DEAD CAT " bounce before EURUSD resumes the downtrend .

Italy issues are still dragging the EURUSD down plus the Softer than expected EU Economic data

Note

German IFO data tanked or declined and yet EURUSD moved up and is not reacting to the data at all. An indication something is not correct. EURUSD is around a major psychological level 1.1400 . It has not broken it cleanly with a follow through .

Be Careful of " EURO Bull traps " as i call them " EURO BS traps "

Note

Is there any reason why EURUSD would be grinding up since it hit 1.1397? . The USD Dollar is weaker today across the board , That's the only reason i see why EURUSD is not yet dropping to mid 1.1300s . I am currently looking at the Market Makers issuing orders in the FX market and i only see some speculators and very few Large Banks at the moment , which indicates to me that something is not right with the grinding up of EURUSD. Of course , EURUSD was oversold on 4-hour chart so we expect a " DEAD CAT" bounce anytime but this grinding up doesn't look to be the one

Note

EURO Bulls trap got busted. For those who got sucked into believing that EURUSD had hit a good bottom and was turning heading upwards, you got sucked into the "EURO Bulls trap" because after Draghi's Speech the EURUSD fell over 50 pips .

NOTE: EURO Bulls will always set traps for retail traders , before an Economic news which they expect the news to be bad , they will bid up the EURUSD to higher levels and as soon as the news hits they close their positions and youre left holding the bag.

This also happens with the EURO Bears also

Note

US Dollar is mixed this Friday, waiting for US GDP Q3 print which will be a little cooler as per Market Expectation ( Around 3.0% - 3.7% ) . if all is equal then EURUSD should stage " DEAD CAT" bounce but the main trend is still BEARISH .

I expect that we will test the Lower 1.1300s before we see any meaningful bounce.

EURO Bulls are really working hard to push the EURUSD up at the moment of this update. Not sure why when On Today conference call , Draghi indicated the EURO Economic data is softening and Italy is going to be an issue , QE is on the path of ending .

Either they will have to continue QE if things get worse or do something on ITALY debt.

Note

For all US Dollar denominated currencies , The Market is waiting US GDP Q3 . The markets are pretty silent . EURUSD just bubbling up and down within 10 pips up or down.

If US GDP Q3 ( Annualized) comes in better than 3.3% and also the Core PCE is better than 1.8% then expect the EURUSD to drop below 1.1320s otherwise it will rally off the bottom into 1.1400s

Note

Watch out " EURO Bulls Trap " is being set .

US GDP Q3 were strong but since then the EURUSD kept rising which is an indication of that " EURO Bulls Trap " is in process.

Today, Friday, the US Dollar is strong across the board

Note

EURUSD reverses sharply to 1.1400 from 1.1333 . Is this the "DEAD CAT" or we are turning bullish ????

The Market is so thin on EURUSD and US dollar side that i am a little suspicious of jumping in with a LONG , i will wait for confirmation

developeralgo222

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