Euro / U.S. DollarShort
MyJournal 15 - 19/01/2024
WINS/LOSSES COMMENTS:
- moved to early,
1) Tuesday, no trade
2) Wed, no trade
3) Thursday, 50% fibo, ADR did move to 130pips early, ready to TP/BE at anytime
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FUNDAMENTALS:
a) DXY: CPI last week higher, expect strong dollar, (Wednesday) Waller: "Delay cuts", bullish DXY
b) ECB: ECB cut earlier than FED, weak EU
c) XAU: XAU strong fundamentally, Lobo Tiggre said 2024 bullish gold in all cases
d) Other: -
USD BUY | EU SELL, XAUUSD BEARISH TECHNICALS:
- Last W1 chart bearish engulf, we expect to sell, expect bearish at least to 1.0850
- Weekly typical structure, D1 chart Monday/Tuesday bull to 1.098-1.097
- Weekly typical structure, D1 chart Tues/Wed expect to bear to target
- Weekly typical structure, D1 chart Thurs/Fri expect to bear to target
*check DXY chart to confirm the thesis, 15M chart- Execute, Breakout/Pullback
TAKING POSITION RULES:-
(Ultra conservative)
1) Tuesday, no trade
2) Wednesday, 2nd entry after 1st failed SL
3) Thursday, 2nd entry after 1st failed SL
(Conservative)
1) Tuesday, open only 1 position of all pairs, as weekly structure unconfirm.
2) Wednesday, open 2 positions on Tuesday's losses (if we still expect the same weekly structure). This offers us tighter SL, with greater RR.
3) Thursday, if Wednesday still loss, open another 2 positions on Wed's losses (if we still expect the same weekly structure). Thus, max loss @0.25% x5 = -1.25%, if -6%, still need 5 straight week loss.
ADDITIONAL BIAS:
a) Round psychology number 50/00
b) WeeklyTypicalStructure:
-anatomy of candle, price always push to other side first before making real move
-midweek reversalrejection/continuation > BuyBuy*SellSell / SellSell*BuyBuy
c) Daily Candlestick Pattern: doji, engulfing, insidebar/railroad
d) TakeProfit TP / StopLoss SL
Depends on:
-fundamentally / what are the news saying
-liqiudity pool at Daily/Weekly/Monthly where
-averageDailyRange ADR
-catch explosive move only if direction align with weekly high low bias.
Eg. Previous day was bullish doji at daily support & it is mid of the week, do catch today explosive move to next weekly liquidity pool.
e) Entry timing recommendation
-session LONDON, NY 9-12PM GMT+8
f) Entry with discount price, use fib
- moved to early,
1) Tuesday, no trade
2) Wed, no trade
3) Thursday, 50% fibo, ADR did move to 130pips early, ready to TP/BE at anytime
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FUNDAMENTALS:
a) DXY: CPI last week higher, expect strong dollar, (Wednesday) Waller: "Delay cuts", bullish DXY
b) ECB: ECB cut earlier than FED, weak EU
c) XAU: XAU strong fundamentally, Lobo Tiggre said 2024 bullish gold in all cases
d) Other: -
USD BUY | EU SELL, XAUUSD BEARISH TECHNICALS:
- Last W1 chart bearish engulf, we expect to sell, expect bearish at least to 1.0850
- Weekly typical structure, D1 chart Monday/Tuesday bull to 1.098-1.097
- Weekly typical structure, D1 chart Tues/Wed expect to bear to target
- Weekly typical structure, D1 chart Thurs/Fri expect to bear to target
*check DXY chart to confirm the thesis, 15M chart- Execute, Breakout/Pullback
TAKING POSITION RULES:-
(Ultra conservative)
1) Tuesday, no trade
2) Wednesday, 2nd entry after 1st failed SL
3) Thursday, 2nd entry after 1st failed SL
(Conservative)
1) Tuesday, open only 1 position of all pairs, as weekly structure unconfirm.
2) Wednesday, open 2 positions on Tuesday's losses (if we still expect the same weekly structure). This offers us tighter SL, with greater RR.
3) Thursday, if Wednesday still loss, open another 2 positions on Wed's losses (if we still expect the same weekly structure). Thus, max loss @0.25% x5 = -1.25%, if -6%, still need 5 straight week loss.
ADDITIONAL BIAS:
a) Round psychology number 50/00
b) WeeklyTypicalStructure:
-anatomy of candle, price always push to other side first before making real move
-midweek reversalrejection/continuation > BuyBuy*SellSell / SellSell*BuyBuy
c) Daily Candlestick Pattern: doji, engulfing, insidebar/railroad
d) TakeProfit TP / StopLoss SL
Depends on:
-fundamentally / what are the news saying
-liqiudity pool at Daily/Weekly/Monthly where
-averageDailyRange ADR
-catch explosive move only if direction align with weekly high low bias.
Eg. Previous day was bullish doji at daily support & it is mid of the week, do catch today explosive move to next weekly liquidity pool.
e) Entry timing recommendation
-session LONDON, NY 9-12PM GMT+8
f) Entry with discount price, use fib
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