The Day Ahead

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Major Economic Data:
US:

ISM Manufacturing (June) and JOLTS job openings (May) – Key for Fed rate cut outlook.

Construction spending and vehicle sales – Insight into economic strength.

Dallas Fed services – Regional business sentiment check.

China:

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June) – Watch for signs of continued slowdown.

Japan:

Tankan Survey (Q2) – Key business sentiment data; may influence BoJ policy.

Eurozone:

June CPI (inflation) – Crucial for ECB’s rate path.

Germany unemployment, Italy PMI, budget, and car sales – Regional economic health indicators.

Central Bank Highlights:
ECB Sintra Forum Panel:

Features Powell (Fed), Lagarde (ECB), Ueda (BoJ), Bailey (BoE).

Markets will watch for any policy shift signals or divergence in rate outlooks.

Other ECB Speakers:

Guindos, Schnabel, Elderson – may give more hints on inflation and rate moves.

ECB Consumer Survey:

Offers insight into household inflation expectations.

Market View:
US data may push Fed closer to rate cuts if weak.

Eurozone inflation will guide ECB stance.

China’s PMI is a global growth signal.

Central bank talks at Sintra are key for global rate outlook.

Overall:
Markets are on edge awaiting clarity on growth, inflation, and rate paths. Expect possible moves in FX, yields, and equities depending on the data and central bank tone.

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