Potential Euro/USD Post-triangle Thrust Rally Targets
Background:
In May 2014, a bearish triangle which originated in 2008 concluded at 1.39938, and the thrust measurement therefrom suggested a minimum low of 1.04402 would follow.
In March 2015, Euro concluded the thrust wave down to 1.04624, almost exactly as prescribed by the triangle. By my count, the thrust represents 3 waves down. Next, an upward 4th wave developed as a triangle correction that ended in October 2015. That triangle provides several successive thrust measurements which should roughly correspond to the extreme high and low points to be reached during the final 5-wave impulsive sequence down.
The first thrust measurement suggested a distance of 0.10009. From the final peak of the triangle, that equated to a low of 1.04942. In fact, the subsequent thrust wave down reached very nearly to that level at an actual 1.05837, which I label as wave (1). Measurements from within the triangle then suggested that the following corrective rallies would peak at about 1.08869 and 1.10097 and then 1.2220 and 1.14119 (or perhaps somewhere between).
Current Wave Action:
As the next expected wave was a wave (2) rally, the above levels would apply to the legs of the wave (2). In reality, a sharp spike first to 1.08930 and then 1.09811 occurred, meeting those levels quite closely. I label that sequence as wave A of (2)
From that point, price has taken the form of a contracting triangle, which I label B of (2). With the exception of what I consider to be a renegade wave E of this triangle, other waves ABC and D have fit within the contracting structure nicely. Wave E itself appears to be ending as a triangle (quite typically) and is struggling to maintain above the level 1.09236 (the bottom of wave C) while completing its own contractions in order to complete above that level, as a prerequisite to completing the triangle as a whole. The wave B triangle's thrust measurement suggests an upward distance of 0.3444. That distance may be assumed to begin from the low extreme of wave B (1.08052) or possibly from the end of wave E which I may assume will be no lower than 1.09236. In either case, the estimated upward minimum thrust for wave C would approximate the range prescribed by the above bearish parent triangle. Likely actual targets would seem to be 1.11405 and 1.12667. In any case, the wave (2) rally in total should not exceed 1.14952, the origin of wave (1).
In May 2014, a bearish triangle which originated in 2008 concluded at 1.39938, and the thrust measurement therefrom suggested a minimum low of 1.04402 would follow.
In March 2015, Euro concluded the thrust wave down to 1.04624, almost exactly as prescribed by the triangle. By my count, the thrust represents 3 waves down. Next, an upward 4th wave developed as a triangle correction that ended in October 2015. That triangle provides several successive thrust measurements which should roughly correspond to the extreme high and low points to be reached during the final 5-wave impulsive sequence down.
The first thrust measurement suggested a distance of 0.10009. From the final peak of the triangle, that equated to a low of 1.04942. In fact, the subsequent thrust wave down reached very nearly to that level at an actual 1.05837, which I label as wave (1). Measurements from within the triangle then suggested that the following corrective rallies would peak at about 1.08869 and 1.10097 and then 1.2220 and 1.14119 (or perhaps somewhere between).
Current Wave Action:
As the next expected wave was a wave (2) rally, the above levels would apply to the legs of the wave (2). In reality, a sharp spike first to 1.08930 and then 1.09811 occurred, meeting those levels quite closely. I label that sequence as wave A of (2)
From that point, price has taken the form of a contracting triangle, which I label B of (2). With the exception of what I consider to be a renegade wave E of this triangle, other waves ABC and D have fit within the contracting structure nicely. Wave E itself appears to be ending as a triangle (quite typically) and is struggling to maintain above the level 1.09236 (the bottom of wave C) while completing its own contractions in order to complete above that level, as a prerequisite to completing the triangle as a whole. The wave B triangle's thrust measurement suggests an upward distance of 0.3444. That distance may be assumed to begin from the low extreme of wave B (1.08052) or possibly from the end of wave E which I may assume will be no lower than 1.09236. In either case, the estimated upward minimum thrust for wave C would approximate the range prescribed by the above bearish parent triangle. Likely actual targets would seem to be 1.11405 and 1.12667. In any case, the wave (2) rally in total should not exceed 1.14952, the origin of wave (1).
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