EUR/USD – Tactical Bearish Outlook Ahead of Key Reversal
EUR/USD is approaching a critical inflection point where multiple technical and fundamental signals are aligning to suggest a potential short-term reversal.
📉 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (1W / 1D)
The pair recently completed a clean bullish structure inside an ascending channel, originating from the 1.0600 demand zone and reaching into the key supply area between 1.1400–1.1550.
Recent price behavior indicates:
A weekly candle with a strong upper wick, signaling institutional rejection.
A visible RSI bearish divergence, showing weakening momentum.
The most recent daily candle broke below the channel, suggesting a potential swing high.
Implication: A short-term reversal is likely, targeting the 1.1180 zone, with an extended move potentially reaching the 1.1050–1.1000 area.
🧠 2. COT Data – Institutional Positioning
USD Index:
Non-Commercials increased longs (+823) and slightly increased shorts (+363) — net bias still bullish USD.
Commercials also added to longs, further confirming institutional accumulation.
→ USD strength building.
EUR Futures:
Non-Commercials reduced longs (-1,716) and added shorts (+6,737).
The net long position in EUR continues to weaken.
→ Increasing risk of EUR retracement.
📅 3. Seasonality – EUR/USD in June
EUR/USD tends to be neutral to bearish in June.
The 5- and 10-year averages show consistent early-month declines, supporting a short bias in the first two weeks.
📊 4. Retail Sentiment
Sentiment is currently evenly split (50/50).
However, more volume is positioned long — a potential contrarian signal.
→ A break in this balance may trigger volatility and directionality.
🧭 5. Macro Context
Eurozone is facing stagnation, with falling inflation and weak growth.
U.S. data remains stronger, supporting the Fed’s “higher for longer” narrative.
→ This divergence favors a stronger USD in the near term.
✅ Trading Outlook
📉 Current Bias: Bearish (corrective)
📌 Short-Term Target: 1.1180
📌 Mid-Term Target: 1.1050–1.1000
❌ Invalidation: Weekly close above 1.1460
🎯 Strategy: Look for intraday rejection confirmations and sell pullbacks, in alignment with HTF structure and institutional flows.
EUR/USD is approaching a critical inflection point where multiple technical and fundamental signals are aligning to suggest a potential short-term reversal.
📉 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (1W / 1D)
The pair recently completed a clean bullish structure inside an ascending channel, originating from the 1.0600 demand zone and reaching into the key supply area between 1.1400–1.1550.
Recent price behavior indicates:
A weekly candle with a strong upper wick, signaling institutional rejection.
A visible RSI bearish divergence, showing weakening momentum.
The most recent daily candle broke below the channel, suggesting a potential swing high.
Implication: A short-term reversal is likely, targeting the 1.1180 zone, with an extended move potentially reaching the 1.1050–1.1000 area.
🧠 2. COT Data – Institutional Positioning
USD Index:
Non-Commercials increased longs (+823) and slightly increased shorts (+363) — net bias still bullish USD.
Commercials also added to longs, further confirming institutional accumulation.
→ USD strength building.
EUR Futures:
Non-Commercials reduced longs (-1,716) and added shorts (+6,737).
The net long position in EUR continues to weaken.
→ Increasing risk of EUR retracement.
📅 3. Seasonality – EUR/USD in June
EUR/USD tends to be neutral to bearish in June.
The 5- and 10-year averages show consistent early-month declines, supporting a short bias in the first two weeks.
📊 4. Retail Sentiment
Sentiment is currently evenly split (50/50).
However, more volume is positioned long — a potential contrarian signal.
→ A break in this balance may trigger volatility and directionality.
🧭 5. Macro Context
Eurozone is facing stagnation, with falling inflation and weak growth.
U.S. data remains stronger, supporting the Fed’s “higher for longer” narrative.
→ This divergence favors a stronger USD in the near term.
✅ Trading Outlook
📉 Current Bias: Bearish (corrective)
📌 Short-Term Target: 1.1180
📌 Mid-Term Target: 1.1050–1.1000
❌ Invalidation: Weekly close above 1.1460
🎯 Strategy: Look for intraday rejection confirmations and sell pullbacks, in alignment with HTF structure and institutional flows.
Trade active
My view remains short. Waiting for a test on the daily demand zone 
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.