Current news:
– European data: The EUR inflation flash reading and related core inflation numbers (high‐ and medium‐impact) are on the radar. Although the forecast for the headline rate was 2.1% (down from 2.3%), the eventual outcome remains unknown, leaving the market sensitive.
– U.S. indicators: Medium–to–high impact US manufacturing data (ISM PMI and job openings) scheduled later today may add volatility and influence risk sentiment.
• Trend Probability:
– Short Trade: With the price currently trading below the previously indicated support, a bearish continuation is more likely. Based on technical break and pending high-impact news, a short trade outcome is estimated at roughly a 65–70% probability.
– Long Trade: A countertrend bounce toward support is less likely given the breakdown. The probability for a successful long trade stands roughly at 30–35%.
• Technical Analysis:
– Support/Resistance: The key support area (historically around the 1.0800 level) has now been breached. This breakout suggests potential further declines, with lower support possibly near 1.0770–1.0760.
– Price Action & Indicators: Recent M15 candles have confirmed a downward slide beyond a previous rally zone, and while some oscillators show mixed readings, the overall picture reinforces bearish momentum.
– Moving averages: The 50– and 200–period SMAs remain closely monitored. The break below support suggests that price is not only declining but may struggle to regain grip above these averages.
• Trade Setups & Levels:
[Short Trade Setup]
• Entry: Consider entering around the current price (roughly 1.0784–1.0786)
• Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss just above the previous support zone, around 1.0805 to limit risk in case of a reversal.
• Take Profit (TP): Aim for lower support targets near 1.0760 or even 1.0755, adjusting based on emerging price action.
Disclaimer: this is just an idea and not recommendation or any kind of advice.
– European data: The EUR inflation flash reading and related core inflation numbers (high‐ and medium‐impact) are on the radar. Although the forecast for the headline rate was 2.1% (down from 2.3%), the eventual outcome remains unknown, leaving the market sensitive.
– U.S. indicators: Medium–to–high impact US manufacturing data (ISM PMI and job openings) scheduled later today may add volatility and influence risk sentiment.
• Trend Probability:
– Short Trade: With the price currently trading below the previously indicated support, a bearish continuation is more likely. Based on technical break and pending high-impact news, a short trade outcome is estimated at roughly a 65–70% probability.
– Long Trade: A countertrend bounce toward support is less likely given the breakdown. The probability for a successful long trade stands roughly at 30–35%.
• Technical Analysis:
– Support/Resistance: The key support area (historically around the 1.0800 level) has now been breached. This breakout suggests potential further declines, with lower support possibly near 1.0770–1.0760.
– Price Action & Indicators: Recent M15 candles have confirmed a downward slide beyond a previous rally zone, and while some oscillators show mixed readings, the overall picture reinforces bearish momentum.
– Moving averages: The 50– and 200–period SMAs remain closely monitored. The break below support suggests that price is not only declining but may struggle to regain grip above these averages.
• Trade Setups & Levels:
[Short Trade Setup]
• Entry: Consider entering around the current price (roughly 1.0784–1.0786)
• Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss just above the previous support zone, around 1.0805 to limit risk in case of a reversal.
• Take Profit (TP): Aim for lower support targets near 1.0760 or even 1.0755, adjusting based on emerging price action.
Disclaimer: this is just an idea and not recommendation or any kind of advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.