Long

Updated

Long FAST @ 80.32 - because the odds are in my favor

I don't care what your trading strategy is. In the end, if you're going to be successful at trading, it's about putting the odds in your favor. In my case, I like to put the odds WAYYYYYY in my favor.

is one of my top stocks. Out of over 1,000 trades going back to the month before Black Monday in 1987, it has only produced 3 "losing" trades, and they'd all have been opened in the last 7 days. That's well above
a 99% win rate.

The AVERAGE gain on those trades has been 2.21% (excluding the near zero impact of the 3 current losers) and each took on average, just over 2 weeks to complete. On a per day held basis, that's about 4.5x the average daily return of the S&P 500 and includes periods of trading covering Black Monday, the dot.com crash, the Asian currency crisis, the Financial Crisis/Great Recession of 2007-09, and various other extreme market drawdowns.

You can see that during the most recent 3 month drawdown in the stock, I'd have come out ahead, so I'm not particularly concerned that the last couple of weeks have been rough ones for $FAST. I would consider the potential closing of the "gap" from a few weeks ago as normal and healthy from a technical perspective and offering price support at the level prior to that gap, as well as from the blue uptrend line.

I never have an absolute guarantee that a trade will make money for me, but this stock is about as close as it gets to that. In fact, it was all I could do not to buy a 4x sized lot to cover the 3 trades I could have made that I didn't because I was maxed out on the number of positions in my portfolio or chose stocks with even better risk/return statistics than this one. If it goes down another day, I may just do that. I'll obviously note it here if I do.

Per my usual strategy, I'll add at the close on any day it is still a "buy" and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.

As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.

Trade active

Added a second lot at 79.69 just before the close today.

Lots currently held:

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69

Note

Added lot 3 at the close for 79.26. Only down around 0.6% on the position as a whole right now and still above gap and trend line support.

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26

Note

7 consecutive down days. I'm about ready to start using calls instead of stock buys because this streak has to end pretty soon. Anyway, bought another lot at 79.04.

Lots held

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04

Note

Officially the longest losing streak for this stock since 2018 👏👏👏👏. So lucky I could be a part of it 🤮 If it's down on Monday too, that will be REAL history. There are people on this site that weren't even alive the last time that happened...

Anyway, bought again at 79.49 before the close because 5 is a party. Have a good weekend! Glad this week is over. 👎

Lots held

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49

Note

Down 9 days in a row and 12 of the last 13. Did I miss something? Were they caught selling nuclear secrets or something? At least I didn't get in until about halfway down...Added another lot at 78.13 at the close.

Lots held

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13

Note

Welcome back to 2002 everyone!! The last time FAST had a losing streak this long George W. Bush was in the White House, 9/11 had happened barely a year earlier, My Big Fat Greek Wedding was #1 at the box office, and Avril Lavigne's "Complicated" was the #1 song. People still watched TV and read newspapers, too LOL. The remarkable thing about this trade is that after 7 straight down days since I entered, I'm only down an average of about 1.7% per lot. That's sort of amazing. Anyway, I don't know what the record streak is for FAST and I don't want to find out. Here's hoping for a huge up day tomorrow and closing this whole trade out in a day. That would be a nice Christmas present.

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64

Note

Sorry for the late update but I was traveling yesterday and just too tired and busy last night to deal with this. I added at the close at 74.65

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 8 - 74.65

Note

For anyone who reads this - the next time you want to go all in when that voice in your head tells you "it can't keep going down...it HAS to go up" I want you to remember this trade. Stocks can ALWAYS keep going up or keep going down. The odds get longer each time they do, but stocks defy odds all the time. This 12 consecutive down days streak is an anomaly, but obviously not impossible.

Added again at the close today at 74.10

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 8 - 74.65
Lot 9 - 74.10

Note

Sold Lots 8 and 9 at the close at 74.82.

Lot 8 : +0.23% in 2 days
Lot 9: +0.97% in 1 day

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64

Note

Buy signal again at the close so I bought another lot a few seconds before the close at 72.97

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 10 - 72.97

Note

Still a buy so I added a lot just before the close at 71.93.

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 10 - 72.97
Lot 11 - 71.93

Note

Added lot 12 at 71.90 just before the close.

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 10 - 72.97
Lot 11 - 71.93
Lot 12 - 71.90

Note

Added lot 13 at 71.11 at the close today.

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 10 - 72.97
Lot 11 - 71.93
Lot 12 - 71.90
Lot 13 - 71.11

Note

Sold lot 13 at 71.69 at the close for a 0.82% gain in 1 trading day.

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 10 - 72.97
Lot 11 - 71.93
Lot 12 - 71.90

Note

Sold lots 11 and 12 for 71.97 at the close for a .06% gain in 4 trading days and a 0.1% gain in 3 trading days, respectively.

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 10 - 72.97

Note

Sold lot 10 at the close for 73.74 - a +1.06% gain in 10 trading days.

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64

Note

Added another lot just before the close for 73.85

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64
Lot 8 - 73.85

Note

Sold lot 8 just before the close for 74.11 - a +0.35% gain in 1 day. Not a great win, but any win on a day like today is to be cherished.

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13
Lot 7 - 77.64

Note

Sold lot 7 today at the close for 77.85 for a whopping 0.27% gain in 50 trading days. But, given the catastrophe that this trade was at the outset, I'm happier than I'd otherwise be. FAST was a fairly isolated bright spot on an otherwise UGLY day in the market. Plus, I'm now less than .7% away from break even and just over 3% from being out of all lots profitably. Can't complain about that. Just hoping the momentum carries through for a few more days.

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 2 - 79.69
Lot 3 - 79.26
Lot 4 - 79.04
Lot 5 - 78.49
Lot 6 - 78.13

Note

Sold lots 2 through 6 today a minute or so before the close for 80.02. That last lot fought like heck to remain part of my portfolio today. Won't be sad to see him go, but you gotta admire the little guy's tenacity.

Lot 2 - 79.69 --> 80.02 = +0.41% in 58 trading days
Lot 3 - 79.26 --> 80.02 = +0.96% in 57 trading days
Lot 4 - 79.04 --> 80.02 = +1.24% in 56 trading days
Lot 5 - 78.49 --> 80.02 = +1.95% in 55 trading days
Lot 6 - 78.13 --> 80.02 = +2.42% in 54 trading days

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 80.32

Note

Added lot #14 at 74.41 today.

Lots currentl held:
Lot 1 - 80.32
Lot 14 - 74.41 (lots 2 thru 13 already closed profitably)

Note

Sold lot 14 a little before the close for 76.45 -- a 2.73% gain in 3 trading days. Like
CR
, while the original lot is still down 4.8%, the other lots sold at a profit have more than made up for it and overall, the trade is up 8.8% and my exposure is still the same as on day 1. Especially the way the market has been the last few weeks, it would have been gut wrenching holding 14 lots of this at once had I not been selling them profitably as I went along.

Regular old DCA would work, but boy in times like the last few weeks you're looking at MAJOR portfolio drawdowns that way. I much prefer the peace of mind of doing it this way. My max portfolio drawdown (so far - knock on wood) since this market meltdown began in mid-February has been 9.5% as a result of trading everything I own this way. I also have had some help from day trading boosting those returns, so it hasn't been all trades like this (though I day trade in a similar fashion).

Trade closed: target reached

Well it's been a long, grueling (not) fun run, but it's over now. Sold the final remaining lot of FAST at the close for 80.64 - a 0.40% gain in 84 trading days. What began with the longest losing streak for the stock in two decades has now ended with 15 winning trades with a collective total gain of 13.97% while the stock is 0.4% above where I started, and is down 11.42%.

In retrospect, the adversity this trade faced was a great reminder of what consistency and sticking to your plan can do in trading, and for that, I'm glad it all happened. I'd always rather be in and out in a day, but in the midst of an historic downturn in the market, showed why it has been an all-time top performer for me and why how I trade works for making money even when the market is fighting you. I've listed each of the individual lot trades that made up this idea below as a reminder of how small wins can add up, especially when the market is facing rough times. Thanks to all who followed along on this little journey! Congrats to $FAST! Still undefeated!!!

I'm listing these in the order they appear on my spreadsheet I use for accounting purposes, so it may not be the same sequence as shown above, FYI.

80.32 --> 80.64 = +0.40% in 84 trading days
74.42 --> 76.45 = +2.73% in 3 trading days
79.69 --> 80.02 = +0.41% in 58 trading days
79.26 --> 80.02 = +0.96% in 57 trading days
79.04 --> 80.02 = +1.24% in 56 trading days
78.49 --> 80.02 = +1.95% in 55 trading days
78.13 --> 80.02 = +2.42% in 54 trading days
77.64 --> 77.85 = +0.27% in 50 trading days
73.85 --> 74.11 = +0.35% in 1 trading day
74.65 --> 74.82 = +0.23% in 2 trading days
74.10 --> 74.82 = +0.97% in 1 trading day
72.97 --> 73.74 = +1.06% in 10 trading days
71.93 --> 71.97 = +0.06% in 4 trading days
71.90 --> 71.97 = +0.10% in 3 trading days
71.11 --> 71.69 = +0.82% in 1 trading day

While none of these trades was especially stellar, especially for , a reminder: the average daily return of the S&P 500 during this time this trade was active was -0.13% per day.

Note

Trade summary for my records

Avg gain per lot traded = 0.93%
Avg holding period per lot = 29.3 trading days
Avg gain per lot per day held = +0.032%
Annualized RoR = .032 x 252 = +8.0%

Note

Forgot to put the W/L record in that one above.

Lots traded: 15

Wins: 15
Losses: 0

redwingcoach

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