- Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bear bar in its lower half with a small tail below.
- We said that the recent selling has been climactic and slightly oversold. Perhaps we may see a minor pullback towards the 20-day EMA or April 10 high area?
- The market attempted to reverse higher but sold off in the last 30 minutes.
- Currently, the candlestick is a small bull inside doji.
- The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 16) and a small double bottom (Apr 9 and Apr 16)
- They see the current move simply as a retest of the April 9 low and want a reversal from a lower low major trend reversal.
- They see the last 3 trading days forming a micro wedge (Apr 14, Apr 15, and Apr 16).
- They must create strong bull bars with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a TBTL (Ten Bars, Two Legs) pullback.
- They want a retest of the 20-day EMA or the April 10 high.
- The bears want a retest of the January low.
- They want a large second leg sideways to down with the first leg being the April 2 to April 9 low.
- If the market trades higher, they want the April 10 high or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance, followed by a reversal from a double-top bear flag.
- Exports for the first 15 days are up ITS: 16.95%, AmSpec: 13.55%.
- Production is slowly picking up, but not in a big way yet.
- Refineries' appetite to buy physical remains lukewarm with the recent sharp falling market.
- The market remains Always In Short.
- The recent selling has been climactic and slightly oversold.
- The move down since April 10 has a lot of overlapping candlestick. (see the 4 hr chart below). While the tight bear channel means persistent selling, the overlapping candlesticks indicate a weaker down phase than the first leg down (April 2 to April 9).
- The bulls need to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a minor pullback towards the 20-day EMA or April 10 high area. So far, they have not yet been able to do so.
- If the bears get a strong breakout below the April 9 low with strong follow-through selling instead, the odds of a retest of the 3850-3900 area will increase.
- Let's monitor the buying/selling pressure tomorrow.
Possible resistance area to pay attention: around the 4040-50 to 4070 area.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.