- Wednesday’s candlestick (Jun 11) was a bear bar closing below the middle of its range with a prominent tail below.
- In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar, or if the bulls could create a bull bar closing above the 20-day EMA.
- The market formed a follow-through bear bar but the prominent tail below indicates some profit-taking activity.
- The bears want a reversal from a wedge bear flag (April 25, May 14, and Jun 3) and a double top bear flag (May 14 and Jun 3). They see another smaller wedge bear flag (May 29, Jun 3, and Jun 9).
- They must continue to create follow-through selling below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a strong leg down.
- The bulls want a reversal from a wedge bull flag (May 16, May 26, and Jun 11).
- They want the May 30 or May 26 lows area to act as support. They want the market to reverse above the 20-day EMA.
- They want the current move to have poor follow-through selling.
- They must create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to show they are back in control.
- Production for June should be more or less around May's level. Could be slightly lower even. Sppoma's first 10 days are down -16%, but could be due to the Hari Raya Haji holiday.
- Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
- Export: Looks strong in the first 10 days +25-30%
- For tomorrow (Thursday, June 12), traders will see if the bears can create another follow-through bear bar.
- Or will the market stall and form a bull bar trading above the 20-day EMA in the next few days instead?
- Poor follow-through and frequent reversals are hallmarks of trading ranges.
- The market has been in a trading range in the last 21 trading days. Traders could Buy Low, and Sell High within the trading range until there is a strong breakout from either direction.
Andrew
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.