Shares of FedEx 
FDX have often swung quite violently following release of the delivery-service giant's quarterly earnings. What does FDX’s chart and fundamental analysis say might happen after the firm reports results next Tuesday (June 24)?
Let’s check:
A History of Big Swings
Looking at just FedEx’s past five quarterly reports, its stock did the following in next trading day:
-- March 23, 2024: Rose 7.4%.
-- June 26, 2024: Gained 15.5%.
-- Sept. 20, 2024: Surrendered 15.5%.
-- Dec. 20, 2024: Closed essentially flat at -0.05%.
-- March 21, 2025: Gave up 6.5%.
Oh, and that one not-so-violent-looking result -- the 0.05% loss on Dec. 20 December -- actually came during an extremely volatile session for the stock. FedEx shares had been up as much as 7% that day, but managed to give that all back by the close.
And as I write this column, the options market is pricing in FedEx seeing a 6%-8% move by next Friday's weekly expiration following next week’s earnings release.
FedEx’s Fundamental Analysis
Analysts’ consensus estimate for next week’s earnings called at last check for the company to report $5.91 in adjusted earnings per share on $21.8 billion of revenue.
That would represent a 9.2% gain year over year for adjusted EPS, but about a 1%-2% contraction in revenues.
But interestingly, 19 of the 20 sell-side analysts that I can find that cover FDX have lowered their earnings projections since the quarter began.
It’s also worth noting that FedEx raised its quarterly dividend on June 9 ahead of the upcoming earnings. I can’t say whether that means management is bracing for ugly results, but it does put that thought into my head.
FedEx’s Technical Analysis
Now let’s look at FDX’s chart going back to April 2024:
Readers will see that FedEx sold off rather sharply coming out of a so-called “double-top” pattern of bearish reversal that stretched from March 2024 to about March 2025 (marked “Top 1” and “Top 2” in the chart above).
What happened at that point is that the stock kept putting in lower highs. And once we got to April, the stock started putting in higher lows as well.
In fact, FDX has developed what’s known as a “pennant formation” over the past 10 weeks or so, as denoted by the two purple diagonal lines at the chart’s right.
What typically happens when these pennants close is that the underlying security will move violently one way or the other (although you can’t necessarily predict which way).
In this case, FedEx’s pennant happens to be closing just as the company is about to release earnings -- and we know what’s happened in the past when FDX reports (violent swings).
Add it all up and it suggests that many traders might employ strategies here that focus on volatility (such as straddles or strangles) instead of a directional play involving FedEx stock or options.
Looking at the rest of FedEx’s chart, we see that the stock’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at top) is neutral to better-than-neutral.
FDX’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indication (or “MACD,” marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at bottom) is also about as non-committal as we usually see.
The histogram of the stock’s 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with blue bars) is close to zero-bound. So are both the 12-day EMA (black line) and 26-day EMA (gold line).
That could mean traders either expect no real reaction to next week’s earnings -- or are expecting an oversized reaction, but have no idea as to its direction.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in FDX at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
FDX have often swung quite violently following release of the delivery-service giant's quarterly earnings. What does FDX’s chart and fundamental analysis say might happen after the firm reports results next Tuesday (June 24)?Let’s check:
A History of Big Swings
Looking at just FedEx’s past five quarterly reports, its stock did the following in next trading day:
-- March 23, 2024: Rose 7.4%.
-- June 26, 2024: Gained 15.5%.
-- Sept. 20, 2024: Surrendered 15.5%.
-- Dec. 20, 2024: Closed essentially flat at -0.05%.
-- March 21, 2025: Gave up 6.5%.
Oh, and that one not-so-violent-looking result -- the 0.05% loss on Dec. 20 December -- actually came during an extremely volatile session for the stock. FedEx shares had been up as much as 7% that day, but managed to give that all back by the close.
And as I write this column, the options market is pricing in FedEx seeing a 6%-8% move by next Friday's weekly expiration following next week’s earnings release.
FedEx’s Fundamental Analysis
Analysts’ consensus estimate for next week’s earnings called at last check for the company to report $5.91 in adjusted earnings per share on $21.8 billion of revenue.
That would represent a 9.2% gain year over year for adjusted EPS, but about a 1%-2% contraction in revenues.
But interestingly, 19 of the 20 sell-side analysts that I can find that cover FDX have lowered their earnings projections since the quarter began.
It’s also worth noting that FedEx raised its quarterly dividend on June 9 ahead of the upcoming earnings. I can’t say whether that means management is bracing for ugly results, but it does put that thought into my head.
FedEx’s Technical Analysis
Now let’s look at FDX’s chart going back to April 2024:
Readers will see that FedEx sold off rather sharply coming out of a so-called “double-top” pattern of bearish reversal that stretched from March 2024 to about March 2025 (marked “Top 1” and “Top 2” in the chart above).
What happened at that point is that the stock kept putting in lower highs. And once we got to April, the stock started putting in higher lows as well.
In fact, FDX has developed what’s known as a “pennant formation” over the past 10 weeks or so, as denoted by the two purple diagonal lines at the chart’s right.
What typically happens when these pennants close is that the underlying security will move violently one way or the other (although you can’t necessarily predict which way).
In this case, FedEx’s pennant happens to be closing just as the company is about to release earnings -- and we know what’s happened in the past when FDX reports (violent swings).
Add it all up and it suggests that many traders might employ strategies here that focus on volatility (such as straddles or strangles) instead of a directional play involving FedEx stock or options.
Looking at the rest of FedEx’s chart, we see that the stock’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at top) is neutral to better-than-neutral.
FDX’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indication (or “MACD,” marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at bottom) is also about as non-committal as we usually see.
The histogram of the stock’s 9-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with blue bars) is close to zero-bound. So are both the 12-day EMA (black line) and 26-day EMA (gold line).
That could mean traders either expect no real reaction to next week’s earnings -- or are expecting an oversized reaction, but have no idea as to its direction.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in FDX at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.