Good Day and I hope you are well.
comment: We are only about 300 points higher than the previous week but market printed the obvious big round number and Friday we had the retest, which did not quite get there but close is always close enough. We are seeing somewhat of an increase in selling pressure but it’s not enough.
current market cycle: trading range and very broad bull channel on the weekly time frame
key levels for next week: 23000 - 24000
bull case: Best for bulls would be to go sideways and not let market fall below 23400. That’s pretty much all I can come up with for the bulls. Can we go much above 24000? We can but I can not see it happening. If we go higher, it will be without me. I am only interested in seeing an increase in selling pressure and looking for a good short entry. I give bulls 2-3 more days in trying to print 24000 again and if they fail 1-2 more times, they will give up and we can test back down to 23000. It would still be the most bullish outcome if we continue to range between 23000 and 24000.
Invalidation is below 22900.
bear case: I only want to short this but bears are not doing enough for me to consider it. I hate being early because it correlates big time with being wrong. My line in the sand would be a daily close below 23000 and the daily 20ema. Until bears get that, odds heavily favor the bulls to buy any pullback. So for now, not much to do as a bear. For this year I still expect at least 20000 to get hit again. So if you would force me to give an answer, I would short this with a stop 24600 and wait until we hit 20000 again. If we go into a recession, I would likely hold for lower.
Invalidation is above 24100.
short term: Neutral. I wait for clear topping signals and more selling pressure. Long scalps against support if bulls want 24000. Same as last week.
medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks/months and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000. We most likely have not seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?” 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp.
comment: We are only about 300 points higher than the previous week but market printed the obvious big round number and Friday we had the retest, which did not quite get there but close is always close enough. We are seeing somewhat of an increase in selling pressure but it’s not enough.
current market cycle: trading range and very broad bull channel on the weekly time frame
key levels for next week: 23000 - 24000
bull case: Best for bulls would be to go sideways and not let market fall below 23400. That’s pretty much all I can come up with for the bulls. Can we go much above 24000? We can but I can not see it happening. If we go higher, it will be without me. I am only interested in seeing an increase in selling pressure and looking for a good short entry. I give bulls 2-3 more days in trying to print 24000 again and if they fail 1-2 more times, they will give up and we can test back down to 23000. It would still be the most bullish outcome if we continue to range between 23000 and 24000.
Invalidation is below 22900.
bear case: I only want to short this but bears are not doing enough for me to consider it. I hate being early because it correlates big time with being wrong. My line in the sand would be a daily close below 23000 and the daily 20ema. Until bears get that, odds heavily favor the bulls to buy any pullback. So for now, not much to do as a bear. For this year I still expect at least 20000 to get hit again. So if you would force me to give an answer, I would short this with a stop 24600 and wait until we hit 20000 again. If we go into a recession, I would likely hold for lower.
Invalidation is above 24100.
short term: Neutral. I wait for clear topping signals and more selling pressure. Long scalps against support if bulls want 24000. Same as last week.
medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks/months and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000. We most likely have not seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?” 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.