Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Higher highs and higher lows. Focus on the easy trades. Can only get bearish with consecutive 15m or 1h bars below 24000 and for now that is unlikely. Bulls bought 24000 the whole week so look for longs.
current market cycle: broad bull channel
key levels: 23000 - 24500
bull case: As long as the bull gap 23700 - 23900 stays open, I would only look for longs. 24500 is the next obvious target and it’s not impossible that markets do a complete meltup tomorrow. Structure is a clear bull channel until we print below 24000.
Invalidation is below 23900.
bear case: Bears need something below 24000 again, that means lower lows. Right now bulls remain in full control and I doubt we can go from daily new ath to a big reversal down. I got nothing for the bears here.
Invalidation is above 24550.
short term: Neutral but would only trade long until we see much better selling pressure and prices below 24000.
medium-long term from 2025-05-25: My rough guess from early May was down over the summer and up into year end. POTUS certainly helped with the 50% tariffs. I need to see market reaction next week and if there is no 180° reversal until Friday, they will become reality the week after and dax should do 20-30% down over the next months. Markets were not positioned for any risk what so ever. Now we got the atomic trade bomb.
trade of the day: Short since the bull trap on the open but I did not take it. I thought chances of a reversal were too high for me. I was wrong but that’s ok.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.