Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls finally got their retest and a higher high. Now is decision time. Can we do another leg up or is this a bull trap and we finally reverse for a deeper pullback over the next days? I heavily favor the latter but for now bears are nowhere to be seen and until then, looking for shorts is suicide. 24300 could be the potential next target if we continue in the bull channel on the 1h chart.
current market cycle: broad bull channel
key levels: 23000 - 24300
bull case: Bulls got 24000 and we are in a perfect channel upwards. Trade it until broken. I will only scalp this and if we break above this channel or go beyond 24300, it will be without me.
Invalidation is below 23300.
bear case: I see the odds of this becoming a late bull trap greater than another leg up but so far, bears are doing nothing, so do not look for shorts. Only below 23700 is the current channel broken and we test 23600 next. Below that, 23400 would be next but we closed at the highs and thinking about anything below 23700 is senseless for now.
Invalidation is above 24130.
short term: Neutral. Pullbacks will likely be good long opportunities until we see bigger selling pressure. Bulls in full control but I will not buy the highs.
medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000 or that we have seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?”. 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp.
trade of the day: Buying Friday’s low at 23788 and hold at least for gap close. The move up was strong enough to continue to hold and market has printed 6 consecutive 1h bull bars.
comment: Bulls finally got their retest and a higher high. Now is decision time. Can we do another leg up or is this a bull trap and we finally reverse for a deeper pullback over the next days? I heavily favor the latter but for now bears are nowhere to be seen and until then, looking for shorts is suicide. 24300 could be the potential next target if we continue in the bull channel on the 1h chart.
current market cycle: broad bull channel
key levels: 23000 - 24300
bull case: Bulls got 24000 and we are in a perfect channel upwards. Trade it until broken. I will only scalp this and if we break above this channel or go beyond 24300, it will be without me.
Invalidation is below 23300.
bear case: I see the odds of this becoming a late bull trap greater than another leg up but so far, bears are doing nothing, so do not look for shorts. Only below 23700 is the current channel broken and we test 23600 next. Below that, 23400 would be next but we closed at the highs and thinking about anything below 23700 is senseless for now.
Invalidation is above 24130.
short term: Neutral. Pullbacks will likely be good long opportunities until we see bigger selling pressure. Bulls in full control but I will not buy the highs.
medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000 or that we have seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?”. 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp.
trade of the day: Buying Friday’s low at 23788 and hold at least for gap close. The move up was strong enough to continue to hold and market has printed 6 consecutive 1h bull bars.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.