Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bears had two legs down and the reversal from 24000 was strong enough to doubt this can go below 24000. I do expect some form of re-test of 24000 but the buying since then was insane again. Not a single 1h bar dropped below the prior one.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 24000 - 24600
bull case: Bulls next target is the breakout re-test of 24271 and if they can break above, the next target is today’s high at 24364. Above is likely no more resistance until 24450 or 24500. A print above 24271 would confirm the trading range and conclude the selling for now. This looks more like a two-legged move in a bigger trading range than stronger selling.
Invalidation is below 24350.
bear case: Bears need to keep it below the breakout price and re-test 24000. If they can leave an open gap, that would be great. Best would be to go sideways and stay below 24100 then but for now I have no trust in the bears.
Invalidation is above 24271.
short term: Neutral. No trust in bears but it would be great if we would stay below 23271 and test 24000 again. Daily close below 24000 would be a dream for bears. Above 24271 I would probably look for longs and higher prices again.
medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000
trade of the day: Selling EU open, no bigger resistance and only red bars on the 1h chart.
comment: Bears had two legs down and the reversal from 24000 was strong enough to doubt this can go below 24000. I do expect some form of re-test of 24000 but the buying since then was insane again. Not a single 1h bar dropped below the prior one.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 24000 - 24600
bull case: Bulls next target is the breakout re-test of 24271 and if they can break above, the next target is today’s high at 24364. Above is likely no more resistance until 24450 or 24500. A print above 24271 would confirm the trading range and conclude the selling for now. This looks more like a two-legged move in a bigger trading range than stronger selling.
Invalidation is below 24350.
bear case: Bears need to keep it below the breakout price and re-test 24000. If they can leave an open gap, that would be great. Best would be to go sideways and stay below 24100 then but for now I have no trust in the bears.
Invalidation is above 24271.
short term: Neutral. No trust in bears but it would be great if we would stay below 23271 and test 24000 again. Daily close below 24000 would be a dream for bears. Above 24271 I would probably look for longs and higher prices again.
medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000
trade of the day: Selling EU open, no bigger resistance and only red bars on the 1h chart.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.