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comment: tl;dr covered it. I would be really surprised if we see 24000 again over the next days, if not months. If there is no 180° reversal from orange face next week, this is a de-facto embargo and we will see new lows over the summer.
current market cycle: trading range and very broad bull channel on the weekly time frame
key levels for next week: 22000 - 24000
bull case: My base assumption is that we have started a new bear trend on Friday and any pullback will be a lower high. The higher bulls can get it, the better and weaker the trend will be. On Friday they could not hit the 50% retracement and if bears are strong, market will not trade above 23750 for the next weeks/months. If bulls can get above it, their next target would be the breakout retest 23900. Above 24000 means I am wrong about my thesis and market is doing something else, which will likely be a trading range 23000 - 243000.
Invalidation is below 22900.
bear case: Last Sunday I only wanted to short this but bears did not do enough until then. Friday changed it and I am in full bear mode if Monday goes well for the bears. Clear invalidation above 24000 and if bulls do not get it, shorts with stop new ath are reasonable. Donald gave the gift to bears, now I want to see some carnage. Market held above the daily 20ema but likely only due to the climactic selling, bears happy for any profit for such a long time and algos buying the first touch of the ema. Next targets for bears are the obvious round number 23000 and then closing the big gap down to 22600 and yes, I absolutely think we can get there next week.
Invalidation is above 24000.
short term: Neutral until bears show me some follow-through and not letting the bulls out with anything above 23800/23900. We need a big open bear gap and then we can see some bull slaughter.
medium-long term from 2025-05-25: My rough guess from early May was down over the summer and up into year end. POTUS certainly helped with the 50% tariffs. I need to see market reaction next week and if there is no 180° reversal until Friday, they will become reality the week after and dax should do 20-30% down over the next months. Markets were not positioned for any risk what so ever. Now we got the atomic trade bomb.
comment: tl;dr covered it. I would be really surprised if we see 24000 again over the next days, if not months. If there is no 180° reversal from orange face next week, this is a de-facto embargo and we will see new lows over the summer.
current market cycle: trading range and very broad bull channel on the weekly time frame
key levels for next week: 22000 - 24000
bull case: My base assumption is that we have started a new bear trend on Friday and any pullback will be a lower high. The higher bulls can get it, the better and weaker the trend will be. On Friday they could not hit the 50% retracement and if bears are strong, market will not trade above 23750 for the next weeks/months. If bulls can get above it, their next target would be the breakout retest 23900. Above 24000 means I am wrong about my thesis and market is doing something else, which will likely be a trading range 23000 - 243000.
Invalidation is below 22900.
bear case: Last Sunday I only wanted to short this but bears did not do enough until then. Friday changed it and I am in full bear mode if Monday goes well for the bears. Clear invalidation above 24000 and if bulls do not get it, shorts with stop new ath are reasonable. Donald gave the gift to bears, now I want to see some carnage. Market held above the daily 20ema but likely only due to the climactic selling, bears happy for any profit for such a long time and algos buying the first touch of the ema. Next targets for bears are the obvious round number 23000 and then closing the big gap down to 22600 and yes, I absolutely think we can get there next week.
Invalidation is above 24000.
short term: Neutral until bears show me some follow-through and not letting the bulls out with anything above 23800/23900. We need a big open bear gap and then we can see some bull slaughter.
medium-long term from 2025-05-25: My rough guess from early May was down over the summer and up into year end. POTUS certainly helped with the 50% tariffs. I need to see market reaction next week and if there is no 180° reversal until Friday, they will become reality the week after and dax should do 20-30% down over the next months. Markets were not positioned for any risk what so ever. Now we got the atomic trade bomb.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.