Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: This is a short squeeze and very little could concinve me otherwise. Does it matter? No. We are going higher and until bears print a big bear bar again, bulls remain in full control. 8 Consecutive daily bull bars is always something special. Above 22700 there is no reason not to go for 24000.
current market cycle: Trading range - bull trend on the 1h tf
key levels: 21500 - 24000
bull case: Big breakout on Wednesday with follow-through. Bulls want to go above the start of the panic selling down at 22735ish. If they do, I doubt there will be much resistance until we print a new ath and even then the first pullback will likely be bought again. The volume is atrocious compared to the selling weeks but that is unimportant. Market is going higher, low volume or not. Stops are not dependent on volume. Below 21900 most bulls will likely think the squeeze is over and secure profits.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears last hope is that prior support turned resistance and we stay below 22700. How likely is that? Given that we have not seen a red daily close for 2 weeks, very very unlikely. What would change my mind? Daily big bear bar closing on it’s low below 21900. Nothing else. We have a clear bull trend line and until that is clearly broken, bulls remain in full control. I do think this is a gift to late bulls who did not sell yet. If I had long term longs, I’d thank the lord for a second opportunity to exit them. We will see lower lows below 19000 this year. Zero doubt.
22700
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 22700 for 24000 and bearish only below 21900 on very strong momentum. Bears have turned this bearish again only with a break of the bull trend line and gap close to 21400.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is over. We could still print a lower high below 23000 and go down to 19000 or lower but that would rather be a very shallow broad bear channel. Yes, it can be shallow due to marginally lower highs and lower lows but broad because the range is huge. Can we go much below 19000 this year? Only with a deep recession. We could already be in one but for now it’s unlikely. US tariffs will duck excrements up but it will take more time to manifest.
comment: This is a short squeeze and very little could concinve me otherwise. Does it matter? No. We are going higher and until bears print a big bear bar again, bulls remain in full control. 8 Consecutive daily bull bars is always something special. Above 22700 there is no reason not to go for 24000.
current market cycle: Trading range - bull trend on the 1h tf
key levels: 21500 - 24000
bull case: Big breakout on Wednesday with follow-through. Bulls want to go above the start of the panic selling down at 22735ish. If they do, I doubt there will be much resistance until we print a new ath and even then the first pullback will likely be bought again. The volume is atrocious compared to the selling weeks but that is unimportant. Market is going higher, low volume or not. Stops are not dependent on volume. Below 21900 most bulls will likely think the squeeze is over and secure profits.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears last hope is that prior support turned resistance and we stay below 22700. How likely is that? Given that we have not seen a red daily close for 2 weeks, very very unlikely. What would change my mind? Daily big bear bar closing on it’s low below 21900. Nothing else. We have a clear bull trend line and until that is clearly broken, bulls remain in full control. I do think this is a gift to late bulls who did not sell yet. If I had long term longs, I’d thank the lord for a second opportunity to exit them. We will see lower lows below 19000 this year. Zero doubt.
22700
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 22700 for 24000 and bearish only below 21900 on very strong momentum. Bears have turned this bearish again only with a break of the bull trend line and gap close to 21400.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is over. We could still print a lower high below 23000 and go down to 19000 or lower but that would rather be a very shallow broad bear channel. Yes, it can be shallow due to marginally lower highs and lower lows but broad because the range is huge. Can we go much below 19000 this year? Only with a deep recession. We could already be in one but for now it’s unlikely. US tariffs will duck excrements up but it will take more time to manifest.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.