Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Quick stuff. Daily new ath means bulls are doing more than bears so don’t look for shorts. Today’s selling was a start but we need a clean lower high before one can look for decent short setups. I think anything above 24300 would make me physically sick.
current market cycle: broad bull channel
key levels: 23000 - 24300
bull case: Sideways above 24000 is peak bullishness and as long as we stay above 23750, bulls are fine. Below we test down to the bull trend line which is not far below that and only below 23400 things are getting more spicy for bulls.
Invalidation is below 23300.
bear case: I will spend more time in this section once we have a daily close below 23400. Before that, it’s most likely a pullback that bulls will buy. Odds are heavily against bears so don’t make your life tough. Long term shorts if you can hold through 24500 or higher are fine. Next 10-20% will be made to the downside, zero doubt about it. Only matter is timing.
Invalidation is above 24300.
short term: Neutral. Pullbacks will likely be good long opportunities until we see bigger selling pressure. Bulls in full control but I will not buy the highs. Nothing changed.
medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000 or that we have seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?”. 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp.
trade of the day: Buying the bear trap below yesterday’s low was amazing and so was short 24200. Both buying and selling pressure were so great that market did not run stops above or below the extremes.
comment: Quick stuff. Daily new ath means bulls are doing more than bears so don’t look for shorts. Today’s selling was a start but we need a clean lower high before one can look for decent short setups. I think anything above 24300 would make me physically sick.
current market cycle: broad bull channel
key levels: 23000 - 24300
bull case: Sideways above 24000 is peak bullishness and as long as we stay above 23750, bulls are fine. Below we test down to the bull trend line which is not far below that and only below 23400 things are getting more spicy for bulls.
Invalidation is below 23300.
bear case: I will spend more time in this section once we have a daily close below 23400. Before that, it’s most likely a pullback that bulls will buy. Odds are heavily against bears so don’t make your life tough. Long term shorts if you can hold through 24500 or higher are fine. Next 10-20% will be made to the downside, zero doubt about it. Only matter is timing.
Invalidation is above 24300.
short term: Neutral. Pullbacks will likely be good long opportunities until we see bigger selling pressure. Bulls in full control but I will not buy the highs. Nothing changed.
medium-long term from 2025-05-11: So here is my very rough guess about the next months. This short squeeze is clearly overdone and global macro stuff has most likely already deteriorated a great deal. Down to 20000 over the next weeks and form a big trading range. Up through October-Year end. Zero thought about a new bull trend above 24000 or that we have seen the lows for either 2025 or 2026. Good question is always, “How would you allocate 100k right now?”. 50% short dax, 25% of it levered/options and with the rest I would scalp.
trade of the day: Buying the bear trap below yesterday’s low was amazing and so was short 24200. Both buying and selling pressure were so great that market did not run stops above or below the extremes.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.