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tl;dr
dax - Do or die for the bears at exactly at the bear trend line and last weeks close and also Monday’s pullback high around 19260. Above 19290, bulls are favored for a breakout and target 19330 or higher. If we turn here, I expect 19100 or lower.
dax futures
comment: Watch the 30m 20ema tomorrow and see if bulls can hold above it. The 19250-19280 area should be resistance and I favor the bears, once we drop below 19200 again. Bulls want the breakout above 19280 and then a strong move for a retest of 19491 ath. We are near are exactly at two very important trend lines. One is the big bull trend line from early August (please see my weekly post and chart) and the other is the bear trend line from the ath. I expect a huge day tomorrow, once we know who wins the battle. Right now I think odds are 50/50.
current market cycle: bull trend (big trend line is currently at 18950 on xetra) - close below 19000 ends that bull trend
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls need to break above the bear trend line to stay above the bull trend line and daily 20ema. Market traded the 4th consecutive day around the daily ema and tomorrow we will likely have a huge breakout. If bulls win, we will probably retest the ath.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears are in do or die mode. Either reverse hard and stay below the bear trend line, or give up and see 19400+ again. Both sides showed strength this week and there is no clear direction for tomorrow. Bear case gets better once we trade below 19200 again.
Invalidation is above 19280.
short term: Neutral between 19200 - 19280. Bearish below, bullish above. Best to wait for the breakout tomorrow or Friday but I favor tomorrow.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: Will swing in the direction of tomorrows breakout
trade of the day: Strong selling through Globex but market made a tripple bottom near 19050 and whenever the market tries to do something 2-3 times and fails, it will likely try the opposite. Long above 19130 - bar 10 was a very good trade.
tl;dr
dax - Do or die for the bears at exactly at the bear trend line and last weeks close and also Monday’s pullback high around 19260. Above 19290, bulls are favored for a breakout and target 19330 or higher. If we turn here, I expect 19100 or lower.
dax futures
comment: Watch the 30m 20ema tomorrow and see if bulls can hold above it. The 19250-19280 area should be resistance and I favor the bears, once we drop below 19200 again. Bulls want the breakout above 19280 and then a strong move for a retest of 19491 ath. We are near are exactly at two very important trend lines. One is the big bull trend line from early August (please see my weekly post and chart) and the other is the bear trend line from the ath. I expect a huge day tomorrow, once we know who wins the battle. Right now I think odds are 50/50.
current market cycle: bull trend (big trend line is currently at 18950 on xetra) - close below 19000 ends that bull trend
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls need to break above the bear trend line to stay above the bull trend line and daily 20ema. Market traded the 4th consecutive day around the daily ema and tomorrow we will likely have a huge breakout. If bulls win, we will probably retest the ath.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears are in do or die mode. Either reverse hard and stay below the bear trend line, or give up and see 19400+ again. Both sides showed strength this week and there is no clear direction for tomorrow. Bear case gets better once we trade below 19200 again.
Invalidation is above 19280.
short term: Neutral between 19200 - 19280. Bearish below, bullish above. Best to wait for the breakout tomorrow or Friday but I favor tomorrow.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: Will swing in the direction of tomorrows breakout
trade of the day: Strong selling through Globex but market made a tripple bottom near 19050 and whenever the market tries to do something 2-3 times and fails, it will likely try the opposite. Long above 19130 - bar 10 was a very good trade.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.