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tl;dr
dax futures - 19350 was my line in the sand for bulls to conquer and high of the day was 19359. Bulls doing their best to make 19150 support again and if it holds a third time tomorrow, we could see 19400 if bulls move above 19350 with some force. No interest in selling this. Play the range 19150 - 19350 until it’s broken.
comment: Not a bullish close but bulls kept it above 19150 and that’s the breakout price and very important to hold. Below 19140 I expect 19000 again. Only objective for the bulls is to move with force above 19350 so we can melt higher to 19600+. No interest in selling this. Otherwise not much to write about on a sideways day, so have a look at my weekly outlook.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18900 - 19700
bull case: 200 point range which will likely break tomorrow and I do think the upside breakout is more likely than to the downside. Bears now tried 4 times to get below 19150 and they could not do it again. Bulls are defending their spike from Thursday and that means higher prices are likely.
Invalidation is below 19140.
bear case: Bears failed 4 times at 19150 now. They will probably give up soon and will try again around 19500. If they break below the current range, a retest of 19000 is most likely. Can’t see this going below 19000 again for now.
Invalidation is above 19350.
short term: Neutral inside given range but any long below 19200 is reasonable. I lean bullish to break above 19350 and print a new ath this week.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting previous resistance 19350 was good for 200 points.
tl;dr
dax futures - 19350 was my line in the sand for bulls to conquer and high of the day was 19359. Bulls doing their best to make 19150 support again and if it holds a third time tomorrow, we could see 19400 if bulls move above 19350 with some force. No interest in selling this. Play the range 19150 - 19350 until it’s broken.
comment: Not a bullish close but bulls kept it above 19150 and that’s the breakout price and very important to hold. Below 19140 I expect 19000 again. Only objective for the bulls is to move with force above 19350 so we can melt higher to 19600+. No interest in selling this. Otherwise not much to write about on a sideways day, so have a look at my weekly outlook.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18900 - 19700
bull case: 200 point range which will likely break tomorrow and I do think the upside breakout is more likely than to the downside. Bears now tried 4 times to get below 19150 and they could not do it again. Bulls are defending their spike from Thursday and that means higher prices are likely.
Invalidation is below 19140.
bear case: Bears failed 4 times at 19150 now. They will probably give up soon and will try again around 19500. If they break below the current range, a retest of 19000 is most likely. Can’t see this going below 19000 again for now.
Invalidation is above 19350.
short term: Neutral inside given range but any long below 19200 is reasonable. I lean bullish to break above 19350 and print a new ath this week.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting previous resistance 19350 was good for 200 points.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.