Micro-DAX FuturesShort
2024-09-23 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Talk about pinning at a specific price. Most markets moved inside tight trading ranges between last week’s close and today’s open price. Was it bulls scaling into longs because we will rip higher (accumulation) or bears selling the highs because we crater soon (distribution)? Yes.
We have learned nothing today and you can move on now.
dax futures
comment: Dax was the anomaly today and surprised me with the strong close. Market refused to go down while most others chopped in tight ranges. The 50% pb from Friday’s selling is 19030 and we closed at 19000. Anything above 19100 would be very bullish but I favor the bears to retest at least 18900 tomorrow. That outlook is somewhat low probability until bears can break outside of the current bull channel on the 15m tf.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18800 - 19200
bull case: Market refused to go down after the EU open reversal and we had a spike and channel bull trend day. As long as the bull channel is alive, bulls are fine. Their targets above are 19100 and then 19200 obviously. Given the atrocious pmi data earlier today, this rally feels off and is likely a squeeze. Does that help with trading? No. Can go much higher than anyone expects but right now anything above 19100 would surprise me, again.
Invalidation is below 18970.
bear case: Bears tried a couple of times today but were not strong enough to even retest the open price after we went above 18980 during the EU session. We are near the 50% pb and it’s possible that they come around tomorrow and try to get down to 18800 but as of now they don’t have good arguments. Their first target is to make the market go sideways and break out of the bull channel. Then they need a strong close below 19000. On the daily chart nothing changed after today.
Invalidation is above 19100.
short term: Neutral and bearish once the bull channel is broken for at least a retest of 18900. Bullish above 19100 for 19200 or higher.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Buying 18850 was profitable on Friday and so today. Bar 29 was a perfect signal bar and 30 the entry bar. Stop 1 tick below the signal bar and that was good for 200+ points. I was too busy looking for shorts that I did not take many good long setups. Bad trading on my part.
tl;dr
Indexes - Talk about pinning at a specific price. Most markets moved inside tight trading ranges between last week’s close and today’s open price. Was it bulls scaling into longs because we will rip higher (accumulation) or bears selling the highs because we crater soon (distribution)? Yes.
We have learned nothing today and you can move on now.
dax futures
comment: Dax was the anomaly today and surprised me with the strong close. Market refused to go down while most others chopped in tight ranges. The 50% pb from Friday’s selling is 19030 and we closed at 19000. Anything above 19100 would be very bullish but I favor the bears to retest at least 18900 tomorrow. That outlook is somewhat low probability until bears can break outside of the current bull channel on the 15m tf.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18800 - 19200
bull case: Market refused to go down after the EU open reversal and we had a spike and channel bull trend day. As long as the bull channel is alive, bulls are fine. Their targets above are 19100 and then 19200 obviously. Given the atrocious pmi data earlier today, this rally feels off and is likely a squeeze. Does that help with trading? No. Can go much higher than anyone expects but right now anything above 19100 would surprise me, again.
Invalidation is below 18970.
bear case: Bears tried a couple of times today but were not strong enough to even retest the open price after we went above 18980 during the EU session. We are near the 50% pb and it’s possible that they come around tomorrow and try to get down to 18800 but as of now they don’t have good arguments. Their first target is to make the market go sideways and break out of the bull channel. Then they need a strong close below 19000. On the daily chart nothing changed after today.
Invalidation is above 19100.
short term: Neutral and bearish once the bull channel is broken for at least a retest of 18900. Bullish above 19100 for 19200 or higher.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: 4 Months left in 2024 and I do think the market is in a trading range where the upper area is around 19000 and the lower area is probably 17000 or 16000 if something bigger comes up. Since we are at the very top, I expect the market to go some sideways before trying to go down again. Next 2000 Points will be made to the downside but it’s too early to short this.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Buying 18850 was profitable on Friday and so today. Bar 29 was a perfect signal bar and 30 the entry bar. Stop 1 tick below the signal bar and that was good for 200+ points. I was too busy looking for shorts that I did not take many good long setups. Bad trading on my part.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.