I have seen some of you claim for a pre-cup on FROG 15m! Indeed It hasn't been unnoticed.

I shall remind you that a high degree of variation around a "cup" lowers its validity, what might you say to this?

Assuming we have a model y representing our underlying trend, the degree of variation around our fitted model can be given by the sum of squared error (SSE):



A cup alone makes the assumption of a quadratic underlying trend (that is if you remove cyclical and noisy variations from the price you end up with a curve looking like a parabola) given by:



where at^2 + bt + c is the quadratic trend, where a, b, and c are constants.

If the amplitude of the cycle(t) and noise(t) components are high then variability around the trend will be higher.

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You might see cups everywhere, and that's cool, it's very open-minded of you, and you might even be right, however, trends buried in noise are not as pertinent if you truly believe they play a key role in your analysis.

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